Han’s Laser (002008): Downstream prosperity changes slightly lower than expected, optimistic about long-term development

Han’s Laser (002008): Downstream prosperity changes slightly lower than expected, optimistic about long-term development

Matters: The company released its 2018 annual report and 2019 quarterly report. In 2018, the company achieved a total of 110 operating income.

2.9 billion, a decrease of 4 per year.

59%; realized net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies17.

1.9 billion, an annual increase of 3.

twenty two%.

It is planned to distribute a cash dividend of 2 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares to all shareholders.

The company achieved operating income of 21 in the first quarter of 2019.

2.6 billion, an annual increase of 25.

65%; realized net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of approximately 1.

61 trillion, sixth grade 55.

92%.

Ping An’s point of view: Economic fluctuations affect demand and performance is slightly lower than expected: The company’s 2018 revenue and results were slightly lower than our expectations, mainly due to customer order substitution and macroeconomic changes since the second half of 2018.

From the perspective of each product business: (1) 2018 high-power equipment revenue23.

25 ppm, an increase of 12 in ten years.

09%, accounting for 21 of the company’s total operating income.

1%, the first half and the second half of the revenue growth rate was 26.

14%, 0.

26%, affected by the macro economy in the second half of the year; (2) Affected by the innovation cycle of electronic products, the company’s business income from low-power laser marking, precision welding and precision cutting reached 47 in 2018.

5.1 billion, accounting for 43 of total operating income.

1%, a decline of 23 per year.

22%, which has the highest impact on revenue; (3) Emerging industries, PCB equipment, lithium battery equipment, panels and semiconductor equipment have annual revenues of 16 respectively.

8.2 billion, 6.

4.1 billion, 8.

9.9 billion, an annual increase of 39.

00%, 17.

22%, 76.

twenty one%.

Looking forward to 2019, we believe that: (1) 2019 is not a big year for non-customer innovation, and the probability of related order growth is not high; (2) The worst time period for high-power products may have passed, accumulating macroeconomic stabilization,The downstream investment enthusiasm has recovered, and the performance in the second half is expected to be better than the first half; (3) Lithium-ion equipment, panel equipment, PCB equipment, etc. are still struggling to maintain a high growth rate, which will be the driving force for the company’s 2019 performance.

The negative growth rate of the first quarter of 2019 was affected by the high base: The company’s performance change in the first quarter of 2019 broke through, which was mainly affected by two aspects: (1) High base, the company disposed of its holdings in the first quarter of 2018Mingxin Test and PRIMA’s shares total about 1.

800 million, accounting for 49 of the current total net profit.

7%; (2) The gross profit margin has declined, and the company’s gross profit margin in the first quarter of 2019 was 37.

32%, compared with the same period of 20183.

26 units.成都桑拿网

The first quarter of each year is the off-season for the company’s business to recognize revenue. We believe that the company’s first-quarter results do not determine the direction of its performance.

Investment suggestion: The company is a domestic leader in laser equipment with the largest sales volume and the most abundant product categories, strong R & D strength, scale effect advantage and good brand awareness, so the company has a strong ability to expand its business horizontally.

In the growing business sector, the company’s market share has continued to increase; companies in the emerging business sector continue to expand and will continue to bring new growth points to the company.

Affected by macroeconomic fluctuations, performance base and other factors, the company’s short-term performance has changed 夜来香体验网 significantly, but we believe that the company’s long-term development logic has not been damaged, and it is still worth optimistic in the long run.

Based on the judgment of the domestic economy, adjust the company’s profit forecast. It is expected that the company’s EPS (based on the current share capital dilution) for 2019-2021 will be 1.71 yuan, 2.

67 yuan, 2.

83 yuan (the previous forecast for 2019-2020 was 2 respectively.

41 yuan, 3.

40 yuan), corresponding to the current sustainable price-earnings ratio of 24.

1 times, 15.

4 times, 14.

5 times, maintaining the “recommended” level.

Risk reminders: (1) Risk of slump in downstream demand: The company ‘s current revenue is partially transmitted from consumer electronics manufacturing. If the consumer electronics industry ‘s orders continue to fall short of expectations, it will lead to the company ‘s gradual realization of pressure; if the macro economy declines severely,The growth rate of equipment investment in other industries will decrease; (2) Increased prices of core fiber components such as upstream fiber lasers: Most of the lasers used by the company are imported from upstream manufacturers such as IPG. If they are affected by trade wars and other factorsThe prices of upstream core components have risen, and the company’s product replacement or inability to make price adjustments in a timely manner will affect the company’s gross profit margin; (3) Exchange rate effects: the company’s laser and other core components are mainly purchased from abroad, so the company hasCertain foreign exchange reserves; if the exchange rate changes significantly, it may bring foreign exchange losses to the company and affect the company’s performance.

Qingdao Haier (600690): Steady and Expected Revenue Growth-Steady and Expected Revenue Growth

Qingdao Haier (600690): Steady and Expected Revenue Growth-Steady and Expected Revenue Growth
Event: Qingdao Haier announced the 2018 annual report and the 2019 first quarter report.The company’s single quarter revenue in 2018Q4 increased by 10 year-on-year.4%, with a year-on-year performance of +1.0%, deducting non-performance +16.2%; 2019Q1 revenue increased by 10 year-on-year.2%, performance +9.4%, deducting non-performance +7.1%.The company’s revenue and performance growth basically met the expectations of the capital market.  Revenue growth has increased, and the share of the ice-washed market has increased: Around the first three quarters of 2018, the revenue growth rate of major categories in Q4 improved.According to the announcement, in the domestic market, Haier’s revenue growth around 2018 / the first three quarters of 2018 were: refrigerators 14% / 16%, washing machines 13% / 16%, air conditioners 9% / 16%, kitchen appliances 16% /19%, water heater 9% / 15%.In Q1 2019, the company’s white goods & kitchen and bathroom business income increased by 13%, excluding the factor of consolidation of Candy in 2019, the company’s overall white goods & kitchen and bathroom business income increased by 8%.Objectively, due to the impact of the domestic industry boom, the company’s revenue growth has improved, but Haier’s revenue growth in the ice washing business still exceeds the industry average.According to data from Zhongyikang, Haier’s Q1 washing machine market share increases by 1 every year.9pct, refrigerator market share increases by 0 every year.4pct.We judge that Haier’s air-conditioning business is still in an adjustment period under competitive pressure.According to industry online data, Haier’s Q1 air-conditioning domestic sales volume is YoY-12.4%, export volume YoY-36.0% (Intra-industry sales volume: +2 year-on-year.9%, exports YoY-1.4%), the growth rate of domestic sales has not yet turned positive, and exports have also increased above the same period last year.Haier has demonstrated its leading advantages in the strong business field. It is a system of sales, expansion and expansion are effective, and ice washing is expected to continue to outperform the industry.  Gross profit margin can continue to be improved: Haier’s overall gross profit margin will decrease by 0 in Q1 2019.5 points.As the value of the Renminbi is lower than the same period of the previous year, the GEA’s balance sheet conversion has a positive contribution to export revenue. We believe that the increase in domestic gross profit margin is slightly lower than this.We believe that the continuous improvement of the company’s profitability is mainly due to the continuous increase in the proportion of high-end products. The company’s ultra-high-end brand Casa Di (2018 revenue + 44%, the domestic high-end brand market stands out), GEA (2019Q1 USD YoY +10%), high-end products such as 失败:重查 Fisher & Paykel continued to increase volume, there is room for further improvement in gross profit margin.According to Zhong Yikang, Haier’s increase in ice washing exceeds the industry average, with the average price of Q1 washing machines YoY + 9.6% (Industry average price YoY + 5.9%), average refrigerator price YoY + 8.5% (Industry average price YoY + 5.2%).  Expense rate control is better, and R & D expenditures increase: The company’s sales expense rate increased slightly in Q1.2pct; increase in management expenses + R & D expense ratio by 0.7pct, or consolidation with CANDY, R & D expansion increased (R & D expense YoY + 17).4%) have a certain relationship.The net cash flow from the company’s Q1 operating activities is YoY-39.0%, according to the company’s announcement, mainly due to stock preparation of some 青岛夜网 subsidiaries.  Investment suggestion: Qingdao Haier actively grasps the trend of consumption upgrades and global mergers and acquisitions opportunities, and promotes the high-end brand and layout of the brand. The company has successfully established an A + D financing platform, and looks forward to playing a role in global collaboration with international brands such as GEA, FPA, and CANDYScale effect.What do we expect the company 2019?EPS will be divided into 1 in 2021.28/1.40/1.54 yuan; give Buy-A investment rating, 6-month target price of 20.4 yuan, equivalent to 16 times dynamic price-earnings ratio in 2018.  Risk warning: the price of raw materials rises sharply, foreign trade policies, exchange risks.

Taiji shares (002368): PricewaterhouseCoopers officially supplements Taiji system to help the company’s Encore business accelerate growth

Taiji shares (002368): PricewaterhouseCoopers officially supplements Taiji system to help the company’s Encore business accelerate growth

Last week, the general election of the Board of Directors (Supervisory) of the Board of Directors of Pricewatersoftware. The meeting 厦门夜网 elected a number of leaders of CLP Taiji Group as the chairman, vice chairman and chairman of the Board of Supervisors, marking the official appointment of CLP Taiji.

Pricewater Software is a leading manufacturer of domestic operating systems. We believe that adding Pricewater to the Tai Chi system will assist the company to further improve the distribution of the industrial chain of Encore and achieve accelerated growth of Encore’s business.

Event: Puhua’s 2019 first shareholders’ meeting election passed six expectations including the board of directors and the general election of the supervisory board.

Three of the seven directors of Puhua’s new board of directors are from CLP Taiji. Among them, Zhang Yun (general manager of CLP Taiji Group and director of Taiji shares) serves as chairman of Puhua, and Lu Ye (president of Taiji shares) serves as deputy of Puhua.The chairman and chairman of the board of directors, Li Zhumei (Supervisor of Taiji Shares) serves as director, and Li Xiaoping (China Power Taiji) serves as chairman of the Supervisory Board.

Pricewatersoft officially replaced the Taiji system, and the company’s domestic production industry layout was further improved.

Pricewater Software was founded in 2008, focusing on the development of basic software.

In 2013, Puhua Software undertook the R & D team of Zhongke Hongqi for bankruptcy and liquidation, making full use of the research and development strength and technical foundation of Zhongke Hongqi’s operating system to develop basic software, and “domestic operating system” as its core business development direction. ”

In 2014, when the country proposed security and controllability, Pricewater officially launched a domestic operating system independently developed based on Linux3.

0 version and quickly expand the market.

At present, Puhua Software owns a number of basic software products, including desktop operating systems and cloud operating systems. It will cooperate with Taiji Group companies to exert synergy and scale effects to promote the development of the localization of the information technology market.

As the core industry platform of CLP Taiji, the company has realized the safe layout of domestic databases, middleware, and office software through the investors’ Jincang, Kingdee Tianyan, and Huidian Technology. We believe that Puhua is officially included in the CLP Taiji Group.The company will further improve the ecological construction of the company’s domestic industrial chain and realize the accelerated growth of Encore’s business.

The company’s performance has grown steadily, and research and development has continued to increase, surpassing its long-term growth capabilities.

The company achieved operating income of 45 in the first three quarters of 2019.

84 ‰, an increase of 18% in ten years, net profit attributable to mother 0.

76 ppm, a ten-year increase of 9.

58%, of which 15 achieved operating income in the third quarter of 2019.

710,000 yuan, an increase of 32% in ten years, net profit attributable to mother 0.

55 ppm, an increase of 11% in ten years.

The company’s expanding market and R & D investment, sales and management expense rates are increasing, and the proportion of R & D investment in revenue has increased year by year, providing sufficient momentum for the company’s future growth.

Maintain “Highly Recommended-A” rating: The company’s government cloud business is accelerating and CETC, a major shareholder benefiting from the Encore field, continues to exert its strength and has great development momentum. We expect the company’s net profit to be 4 in 19-21.

22/5.

61/7.

430,000 yuan, maintaining the “strongly recommended -A” level.

Risk warning: The policy support is not as strong as expected; the speed of government affairs cloud advance is lower than expected.

Net profit skyrocketed by 1801%, 80 companies were able to raise funds in Beijing

Net profit skyrocketed by 1801%, 80 companies were able to raise funds in Beijing

For stocks, please read Jin Qilin analyst research report, authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive, to help you tap potential potential opportunities!

  Annual report kidney 2: Net profit surged by 1801%!

80 companies won the Northbound Fund to increase their positions Source: Securities Market Red Weekly Original Red Weekly Recently, a number of listed companies have issued annual report notices, and companies whose performance has exceeded expectations have continued to increase significantly.

Among all the companies with positive performance, the company has turned its losses into profit, its performance has been revised upwards, and its performance has accelerated.

Today, it is expected that the annual report turned to profit Gauss Bell (rights protection), Jiu’an Medical stopped rising strongly.

In this year’s annual report series, let’s focus on three types of annual report stocks: turning losses into profits, upward revisions in performance, and increasing capital in Kitakami.

(Click to read Series 1: Nearly 60% of the company ‘s performance is good, and the annual report has outstanding stock selection stock pools (gold stocks).) 85 companies have turned losses in annual reports, and Daqing Huake has increased by more than 18 times until 15:00 on January 14th.A total of 734 companies disclosed annual report announcements (not including performance reports), of which 85 companies expected to turn losses into profit.

Turning losses into profits can be regarded as a reversal in performance to a certain extent, and investors are expected to have more intense conversions, so it is worth paying attention to.

  Among the above 85 companies whose annual report is expected to turn a profit, 63 companies have clearly switched the annual report pre-increasing range (net profit growth).

Specifically, Daqing Huake, Tongda Co., Ltd., Zhejiang Yongqiang, Ningbo Fubang and Ai Shide are expected to have lower growth limits of 1801%, 965%, 477%, 455% and 445% respectively, which are temporarily among the top five.

  Experts are needed. Among companies that turn a profit, the scale is achieved through one-time income such as asset disposal, investment income, financial subsidies, transaction preferences, etc. This situation does not guarantee the company’s performance growth and sustainability, soThe degree of attention of such companies is also normal (such as Qin’an shares, Royal Bank shares, etc. in Table 1).

On the contrary, partly because of the industry’s reversal, new product launches, capacity releases and other performance growth, its growth quality and growth stability is higher.

  On the company side, Daqing Huake expects annual report net profit of 49 million to 58 million yuan, an increase of 18.

01 times to 21.

14 times.

The company’s annual report will turn losses into profits, and the annual report growth rate is expected to exceed the three quarterly report growth rate.

Rongjie expects to report annual net profit of 4.5 million yuan to 11 million yuan, a growth rate of 1.

64 times to 2.

56 times; the reason for the loss was that “the subsidiary Rongda Lithium Lithium Mine officially resumed production in 2019, and the sales of lithium concentrate produced produced benefits.”

Western Mining is expected to report an annual net profit of about 10 ppm with a growth rate of 1.

49 times; the company stated that “the production and sales of major products increased compared with the same period last year, effectively improving the company’s operating performance.”

  The upward revisions of the annual performance of the five companies ‘results have affected investors’ expectations. The upward revisions of performance indicate that the company ‘s actual operating conditions are better than expected, and therefore deserve continued attention.

On the contrary, if the company’s performance decline is corrected, it needs to be alert to the company’s operating conditions, especially in the short term.

  As of 15:00 on January 14th, a total of 25 companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen have issued annual performance revision announcements, of which 5 companies have revised upwards, while Han’s Laser and Beiwei Technology have revised downwards.

  As for the company, Shengnong Development reported an annual net profit from 37.

0.5 billion to 38.

5.0 billion, raised to 4 billion.

8 ppm to 42 ppm; corresponding increase from 1.

46 times to 1.

53 times, up to 1.

71 times to 1.

79 times (the overall price of chicken meat has increased significantly, and the company’s sales price has exceeded previous expectations).

The growth rate of Pulit’s annual report was raised from 80% -120% to 130% -180% (the production and sales of the company’s products have improved compared with the first half and the same period last year).

  Although Zhongxing Bacterial Industry Co., Ltd. last year revised its annual report performance, it is still in a situation of decline for several years (the decline has narrowed); the correction of Zhongnan Construction’s performance is due to the impact of actual business settlement, and the revision of Jiu’an Medical’s performance is mainly the impact of non-recurring gains and losses.Therefore, the long-term continuous driving force is relatively weak (note: because Jiu An Medical Care has significantly decreased from its previous performance, it has been revised up to a significant increase, so it also has a short-term alternative stimulus).

  The 80 annual report pre-increasing companies have obtained Kitakami funds to increase their positions. Kitakami Funds is good at grasping the rise and fall of the market. It has repeatedly successfully bottomed out and escaped the top. Therefore, it is called “smart capital”, and the stocks that have received a large amount of Kitakami funds to increase their positions are also very smallStrong.

  Of the 370 companies whose annual reports are pre-increased, 80 companies have been able to increase their positions in Kitakami Capital within the last month.

Among them, 23 companies have increased their shareholding ratio by more than 0.

5%, 10 companies increased their shareholdings by more than 1%.  As for the company, among the companies that have forecasted the annual report growth, the proportion of Jinshi Resources’ northbound funds to increase positions increased by 4.

2%, temporarily ranked first.

Benefiting from the increase in both the sales volume and the sales price of fluorite products, the company’s annual report has increased by more than 50%, and the company is expected to increase by more than 35% since December last year.

  The proportion of Zhaoyan New Medicine’s northbound capital increase has 夜来香体验网 increased by 2.

03%, ranking second.

The company expects annual report net profit1.

5.2 billion to 1.

7.3 billion, an increase of 40% to 60%.

The company stated that the prosperity of the CRO industry continued to improve, and the company’s order acceptance continued to grow steadily, resulting in better completion of orders in 2019; at the same time, the company expanded its experimental facilities in Suzhou, which must reduce the situation of insufficient production capacity and further improve profitabilityEnhanced.

  In addition, Siyuan Electric, Livzon Group, and Tiger Pharmaceuticals took 1.
.

8%, 1.

72% and 1.

39% ranked second to fifth.

At the same time, China National Travel, Boss Electric and other companies also rank among the forefront, showing that funds from the north favor pharmaceuticals, consumption and other stable performance industries. These industry leaders deserve long-term attention.

Zhaoyan New Drug (603127) 2019 Interim Report Review: Great Growth in Performance, Leading Growth in Security Evaluation, Continuous Growth

Zhaoyan New Drug (603127) 2019 Interim Report Review: Great Growth in Performance, Leading Growth in Security Evaluation, Continuous Growth

Core point of view The company’s 2019H1 performance exceeded market expectations, and the growth rate of the profit side was significantly higher than the income side.

The decline in the expense ratio during the merger increased the company’s net profit margin by 3.

25%.

With the steady progress in the field of pharmacovigilance and animal experiments, the company’s future earnings have achieved diversified growth.

At the same time, the company’s acquisition of Biomere has accelerated its internationalization, and overseas revenue is expected to become a new profit growth point.

   The company’s performance exceeded market expectations.

2019H1 company revenue 2.

10,000 yuan, an increase of 48 in ten years.

65%, attributable mother and deducting non-net profit is 4013.

630,000 / 2863.

320,000 yuan, an annual increase of 78.

86% / 87.

twenty one%.

Among them, the quarterly revenue of Q2 2019 increased by +51 per year.

45%, net profit attributable to mother +10 for ten years.

55%.

The growth rate of the company’s profit side is higher than that of the income side. The number of orders in hand in 2019H1 is about 1 billion, an increase of 17 in ten years.

6%, the overall performance growth is at a faster level, exceeding market expectations.

   The prosperity of the CRO industry has improved, and the company’s various businesses have steadily advanced.

Benefiting from the domestic wave of innovation, the CRO industry has a high degree of certainty for increasing growth.

As a leader in the field of preclinical CRO safety assessment, the company is expected to continue to benefit from the improvement of the industry’s prosperity.

The reported company’s planned business is steadily advancing: ①In the field of drug evaluation: breakthroughs have been made in ophthalmic drug evaluation characteristics (established an animal model of cynomolgus monkey’s intraocular pressure), and successfully completed two drug efficacy experiments for glaucoma for the American client;②In the field of drug clinical trials, two Phase I clinical research centers have been completed, and it is expected 杭州桑拿 that they will officially undertake business. ③Pharmacovigilance area: Zhaoyan Mingxun independently develops a one-stop pharmacovigilance management platform iPVMAP, whose functions cover the core of pharmacovigilanceThe work content will help enterprises to build an efficient pharmacovigilance system; ④ Animal experiments: Guangxi Wuzhou Experimental Animal Base has officially started construction on April 1, and is expected to increase non-human primate breeding bases by 565 acres (1.

Primate facility with capacity of 50,000 newborns).

With the release of new production capacity and the continuous expansion of business scale, the company’s performance is expected to continue to grow rapidly.

   Internationalization is accelerating, and the acquisition of Biomere actively expands overseas markets.

The company has been dominated by domestic business for a long time (more than 95% in 18 years). In May this year, it announced that it plans to acquire 100% equity of BIOMERE with its own funds of about 27.28 million US dollars.

We believe that this acquisition is an important step for the company to go international. The significance is: ① change BIOMERE’s mature management model and high-quality customer resources to expand the company’s layout in the United States market; ② give full play to synergies and integrate with BIOMERE’s business teamExpand brand influence.

It is expected that the gradual diversification of mergers and acquisitions will continue in the future, the company’s internationalization trend is expected to accelerate, and overseas regions are expected to become new points of profit growth.

   During the period, the expense ratio decreased significantly, and operating cash flow achieved high growth.

The 2019H1 company’s financial, sales, and management expense ratios are -0.

49%, 2.

49%, 27.

99%, ten years +0.

7, +0.

4, -5.

6PCTs, during which the rate of expenses continues to decrease (-4.

52PCTs).

Benefiting from the construction of GLP laboratories, the gradual completion of animal room facilities construction and drug evaluation technology platforms, business synergy effects have led to a significant reduction in management expense ratios.Based on the advance payment method, the company’s financial costs are stable and its cash flow is good.

2019H1 net operating cash flow 7373.

250 thousand yuan, +28 a year.

43%, due to the increase in business volume and the increase in receipts.

   Risk factors: The progress of fund-raising projects is less than expected, the profit of new investment projects is not up to expectations, and industry policy risks.

   Investment suggestion: The company’s performance will grow at a high speed. We maintain the company’s net profit forecast for the mother to 2019-201.

52, 2.

07 and 2.

810,000 yuan, corresponding to the latest equity EPS 0.

94/1.

28/1.

74 yuan, corresponding PE is 64X, 47X, 34X, maintaining the “overweight” level.

Changan Automobile (000625): Ford Releases Three New Cars to Help Sales Recovery

Changan Automobile (000625): Ford Releases Three New Cars to Help Sales Recovery
Ford and Changan independently launch four new cars, which are expected to help sales recovery/ ST- line.At the same time, Changan’s own CS75 plus global pre-sale.Fox SUV version of the Fox actively priced 13.98?15.380,000, big 7-seater SUV ST / ST-Line is priced at 26.98?38.980,000 yuan, B-class car Taurus price 22.89?28.890,000 yuan.A + -grade SUVCS75 plus sports version is priced at 12.79?15.79 thousand yuan.We think that these 4 new cars are more reasonably priced, rich in configuration, and the conversion of gold, silver and silver is coming. The company’s sales are expected to gradually improve. It is expected that EPS in 19-21 will be zero.20, 0.57, 0.80 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating. Changan Ford released three new vehicles to help improve sales in the second half of the year. Changan Ford released three new models of the mid-range remodeling of the Sharp, Taurus mid-range remodeling and Fox Active. 我们认为锐界ST\ST 南京夜网 Line 是一款7 座中型SUV,拥有2.0T + 8AT gearbox power system, the tough lines highlight the high value, using 12.The 8-inch central control screen highlights the characteristics of the intelligent network connection and spatially aligns with competing models to try to boost the sales of sharp-edged models.Taurus is a B-class car of about 250,000, which has more power than the length and space of competing models.Fox Active Positioning is an urban cross-border SUV. Compared to the hatchback version of the Fox, it has a higher chassis. The height of the vehicle body and the ground clearance have been improved, which has improved vehicle passability. Compared to competing models, the Fox initiative is more fuel-efficient.Fixed distance. CS75 PLUS is looking forward to, Escape, Lincoln localization boost expects Changan CS75plus to start pre-sale, which is priced at 12.79?15.The A-class SUV 四川耍耍网 with a price of 790,000 yuan is located in the mainstream price SUV market. The main features are excellent advanced driver assistance functions, better power system, value, price and space.In the fourth quarter, Ford will launch the Escape, a replacement for the Mavericks, and Changan Lincoln ‘s first domestically produced Corsair will be launched.According to Ford China 2.0 plan, Ford may launch 30 new cars in China in the next three years. In 2020-21, Lincoln will localize one model each year.We believe that through the introduction of new Changan Ford models and the localization of Lincoln, Ford’s production capacity continues to improve and sales volume increases. If Ford sales continue to improve, the company hopes to turn around and increase losses, and future profits will be subject to elastic constraints. Future performance improvement is expected, and Changan Ford, which maintains a “buy” rating, can improve R & D and cost reduction capabilities, which can enhance Ford’s product strength and reduce cost to ease profit pressure. Changan’s independent platform, electrification, and intelligent strategy are advancing steadilyWith the launch of new Ford models and localization of Lincoln, the company’s monthly sales continued to improve month-on-month.We expect the company to achieve a net profit of 19-21.68, 27.54, 38.460,000 yuan, corresponding to EPS0.20, 0.57, 0.80 yuan.The company’s profitability is relatively volatile, and the PB estimation method is used to estimate it. The comparable company’s 19-year average estimate is 1.71 times, we think the company’s 19 years of PB efforts to repair to 1?1.It is doubled, and the BPS in 19 is expected to be 9.81 yuan, adjust the target price to 9.81?10.79 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating. Risk warning: The automobile market is weaker than expected, the company’s Changan’s own brand sales are lower than expected, the company’s Changan Ford brand sales are lower than expected, and the company’s Changan Mazda brand sales are lower than expected.

Texhong (002419) Quarterly Report Review: Slight fluctuations in main business income and gross profit margin drive performance growth

Texhong (002419) Quarterly Report Review: Slight fluctuations in main business income and gross profit margin drive performance growth

Key points of investment The continuous improvement of gross profit margin drives the growth of performance.

Net profit attributable to the mother in the first quarter3.

1.4 billion (+5.

25%), after excluding the real estate business, the net profit of the main retail business is 杭州桑拿 about 2.

8.9 billion (+3.

58%), the growth rate of net profit is higher than the growth rate of income mainly due to the increase in net profit margin driven by gross profit margin.

The company’s gross profit margin increased significantly in the first quarter.

70pp to 27.

72%, the gross profit margin of the main retail and real estate businesses increased (+0.

98%, +1.

88).

Net margin increased by 0.

35pp to 6.

06%, the increase in net profit margin was less than the gross profit margin mainly due to the increase in the rate during the period 1.

48pp to 19.

72%, of which the sales expense ratio increased by 1.

31pp to 17.

92% thought it was due to the increase in promotional expenses.

Management, financial expenses increased slightly.

09pp, 0.

08pp.

The main business income fluctuated slightly, and the same store was under pressure in January and February.

The company achieved revenue of 51 in the first quarter of 2019.

7.8 billion (-0.

82%), the growth rate increased by 4 compared with 2018Q4.

41pp; of which 47 is the main retail business income.

7.8 billion yuan (-2.

49%).

The company’s same-store revenue growth accelerated in Q1 20192.

75%, mainly due to a substantial increase of 10 in department stores.

11%, same-store revenue in other formats increased: supermarket (+10.

63%), shopping center (+1.

59%), convenience stores (+2.

9%).

At the same time, mature stores profit budget +7.

62% of which total department store profits -5.

65%.

Looking at the month, the company ‘s same-store growth rate was weak in December, and in March, benefiting from the stabilization of the consumer environment, the same-store growth rate rebounded significantly.By region, the income of Central China, the second largest region, increased significantly (+10.

87%), the income of other regions is completely replaced.

In addition, the company opened five new convenience stores in the first quarter, with no major stores opening.

Internal and external efficiency improvement and digital operation model reorganization will continue to be optimistic in the future.

The company has successfully explored a combination of goods and services that fits the current market environment and consumer needs: 1) Endogenous aspects, through theme stores and CC.

Innovations in formats such as Mall increase passenger flow and customer unit prices and drive same-store growth. 2) In terms of exogenous products, the company has explored a fast-expanding store and expanding light asset management output model, which effectively reduces the operating risks caused by excessive store consumption.

3) With regard to the digitalization of stores, in the case of a weak consumer environment, digitization, refined operations and intelligent optimization of the supply chain are used to improve efficiency and profitability. Future operations and performance growth are expected to be optimistic.

Slightly lowered profit forecast: It is expected that net profit attributable to mothers will be 10 in 2019-2021.

40\12.23\13.810,000 yuan, the realized EPS is 0.

87\1.02\1.15 yuan, the closing price corresponding to PE on April 26, 2019 were 16 respectively.

4\13.9\12.3 times, maintaining the level of “prudent increase”.

Risk warning: Traditional department store renovation is less than expected, shopping mall expansion is less than expected

Zhao Xiaoguang: How to define the new economy and the screening of new economy companies

Zhao Xiaoguang: How to define the “new economy” and the screening of “new economy” companies
New Fortune Platinum analyst Zhao Xiaoguang: How to define “new economy” and “new economy” companies Source: Tianfeng Securities Research Institute1, how to define the new economy?  Bi Wei: Hello everyone, we are Futu Securities.Today we are fortunate to invite Mr. Zhao Xiaoguang and Mr. Zhao to come and share with us some relevant views on the new economy and new economy companies.We will do some relatively in-depth communication with President Zhao here.Now everyone is talking about the new economy, the new economy.So how do you feel as a professional institution to accurately define this new economy?  Zhao Xiaoguang: I think there should be different interpretations of the new economy from different dimensions.From the perspective of the results, the so-called new economy, I think, should be the improvement of the production efficiency of the entire society and the improvement of the satisfaction of consumer demand.  Judging from the way to solve, or the way the new economy is generated, if it returns to the enterprise, the two major elements of the enterprise: the relationship between production and production.High quality refers to the technical aspect; production relationship refers to the way in which the business organization and the consumer have a relationship.We think that all should return to technology.  Improvement-technology We think that there are two major categories, one is specialized technology: specialized technology is placed on the sofa we sit on, it is a new material, this is specialized technology.The second category we define as instrumental technology.Specifically, it can be understood that these technologies help various traditional industries to redefine their own improvement and production relations, which brings more satisfaction to consumers, and the improvement of the production efficiency and social efficiency of the entire society.  Production relationship-we can understand it as follows: First, the production relationship within the enterprise.We used to look at many outstanding Internet companies in China, and more often we saw changes in its business formats and business models.What I see behind is more about the changes in its organizational form, incentive mechanism, and partner model, so I think this is an internal incentive mechanism issue.  The second is the management model.With big data, artificial intelligence is increasingly replacing people, and after replacing experience, then management with big data and artificial intelligence as the core has become a very important way for enterprises.  The third is the relationship between enterprises and customers, including 2C and 2B customers, how to transfer your products and services to customers, how to transfer customer data to you, and provide you with a better and updated experience.  2. Are there some typical new economy industries and companies?  Bi Wei: Do you have some generalizations about the so-called new economy industries or companies that are typical today?  Zhao Xiaoguang: I think there are three main types of companies today.The first is a breakthrough with technology as the core.For example, Shenzhen Rouyu Technology (using new display technology and new material technology to change many industries).  The second is that many companies like the Internet, like Mobike, Didi, through changes in production relations.They use certain information technology (but there is nothing new in information technology), combining information technology with the organization of the industry.This is more of a change in production relations.  The third is to overlap high quality and production relations.More typical, such as Tesla in the automotive industry, has just changed the way the entire automotive industry uses energy through new battery technologies.  At the same time, we can see that the changes brought about by the entire automotive industry’s supply chain relationship, procurement relationship, and market relationship are a closed-loop format, and a format that is continuously strengthened by positive feedback.So we see that there are some industries and companies, some say music, education, car services, and some finance, they have gradually become closed-loop formats.  3, the “self-driving” of the new economy industry: Bi Biwei: Companies like Baidu are doing self-driving technology.Is it a change in production relations that you speak of?Or change in competitiveness?Or is the production relationship and the economy changing?  Zhao Xiaoguang: From the perspective of driverless technology, we believe that there should be a lot of room for the future.It is mainly based on the scheme of either radar or multi-camera and then artificial intelligence recognition.I can talk about the development of voice technology in the past, because behind the scenes of driverless technology is actually an application of video technology.  In terms of voice technology, around 2010, there was a leading voice company in China called HKUST Xunfei. At that time, HKUST Xunfei was also based on single-machine recognition.At that time, 3G was not yet available, so it could only be identified based on the entire mobile phone. The recognition rate was only about 40%.Later, in the second half of 2010, 3G began to be promoted, and the transmission speed began to accelerate significantly. It began to change from a single machine to cloud computing.  After our voice is received from the mobile phone, it is transmitted to the cloud through the network. There is a huge server in the cloud. Sometimes it is said that 10 million people speak the word “Futu Securities” on this server.The data can be easily identified, and then transmitted over the network to tell you what the word I said is.I remember that it was amazing at the time that in a very short time, its recognition rate increased from more than 40% to 97%, 98%.By now everyone basically feels that HKUST Xunfei is a very good voice company.  For now, I think there are still two steps to go for unmanned driving. The initial step is to change from a single machine to a cloud computing solution.At present, they are all stand-alone GPU solutions. I think after switching to 5G development, it should become a cloud computing solution.Because the computing power of a powerful cloud server is always more than that of a single GPU, this step also depends on technological changes.  Looking back, somehow why are there so many problems with autonomous driving now?Why do you say it is immature?In fact, it is very mature, but in the driving industry, there is a permanent accident.So when a Tesla accident occurs, the whole world will ask Tesla what happened?All kinds of accidents should be prevented.  As an example, suppose I am driving on the side of the road now, and I pass through the wall at the corner. You can’t see it. Suddenly, a truck truck hits you.So I think the second step of driverless is to master your precise position.In addition to our current scan of the surroundings by the radar and observation of the surroundings by the camera, an important technology in the future is to master your precise position.  Some time ago, I also looked at some of these companies, and found that our current navigation can actually only be accurate to 5-10 meters, so it must be unsafe, because 5-10 meters is a very large probability of error.Then if you can use satellite navigation and low-orbit satellite navigation to make it accurate to 5-10 centimeters, we can think of a scene where every car I know where I am now, the precise position, how muchMoving at an hour.  In fact, at this time, you can guess boldly, even if you don’t need the current camera and radar, you can achieve unmanned driving.Because every detail is at your fingertips, knowing your speed and position at all times is the relative position.It can be calculated through our simple physics and mathematics.In this context, it can be seen that technological changes are important to the whole of unmanned driving.  At the same time, we can see that the so-called self-driving is actually artificial intelligence, and the support behind it comes from data.No matter the technical solution we see now or the future technical solution, the core is to be able to get data.Data is technology, data is strength.  At this time, data needs to be obtained through changes in some production relationships.So at this time, that is to say, how do you change the format of this auto industry, and the relationship between cars and consumers allows you to get this data.As unmanned is more typical, it needs both continuous optimization and improvement to prevent the probability of one in 10,000 errors, and it also requires changes in production relations to get data.More and more formats in the future, you will find it in line with positive feedback, that is, the more data, the better the effect, the better the effect, the more people use it, the more data, and the better the effect.  Therefore, if you can meet two points at the same time, I think it will win, that is, the winner takes all.The opponent’s error rate is 0.01%, yours is 0.001% more people use the top, the former is abandoned.  4. “The Headlines Today” of New Economy Corporation: Bi Biwei: Among the current New Economy Corporations, there are also some companies that actually penetrate into every aspect of people’s lives.Of course, I think maybe Tencent, Ali, should be the most penetrated.But we will also see that there are some very new emerging economy companies, and their development momentum is very strong.For example, what do you think is similar to today ‘s headlines?  Zhao Xiaoguang: Today’s headline is not a search company, but I want to start from the search industry to understand the business value of today’s headline.There are actually different technological evolutions in the search industry.The initial search was actually Microsoft.  In Microsoft’s eyes, it thinks that search is a technology-related thing, so when Microsoft started to search, it designed a set of algorithms.For example, if I want to search for “Futu Securities”, then I have to develop a set of algorithms to decide which news or which webpage can be ranked on the first page, and which is ranked on the second page.Later, Google also searched, because Google thinks that business is data, and it thinks that search is a data business.For example, I saw 1 million people searching for “Futu Securities”, and about 200,000 people opened Futu Securities. Our activity today, then I will put this first.I rank according to activity, and I believe that the more people use it and search for it, the more likely it is to more people.  I believe that the future search industry is about to enter an era of precise search.That is to say, the results obtained by different people searching “Futuo Securities” are different. For example, if I am an investment person, then I may search Fortune Securities, the purpose is to open an account with you; If I am a college student, then I would search for “Futuo Securities”, maybe I am looking for a job opportunity; if I am an entrepreneur, then I may want to see if there are opportunities for business cooperation; if IIt is a human resources company, so what I want to see most is whether there are opportunities for human resources cooperation.At this time, it is necessary to directly perform information optimization matching through accurate positioning of the search subject.I think this is the application of accurate data in search.  So from this point of view, what is the value of today ‘s headlines?It acquires your various reading habits, and it grasps your precise data to know what kind of person you are.Therefore, if this precise data is commercialized in the future, it can actually be realized in many fields.Traditional methods such as news reading, I think that the content source will become more of a platform, satisfying positive feedback, that is, the more media are willing to join it, the more readers are willing to watch, then the formationA strong positive feedback, but also has a certain social attributes.  So we define BAT as a black hole. It is a black hole of funds and a black hole of data. BAT can already get enough data. A large number of Internet startups actually have a strong crisis.In this context, if today’s headline can be completed to the present degree, and if it knows that the realization of more and more accurate data in the future will be known, I think it is still more optimistic.  Probably in 2014, I and Zhang Yiming went to the United States to see a lot of technology companies, and they still have intersections.But I have n’t had a chance to ask him. I think that when he was doing today ‘s headline, he discovered the core point of a person. What was his favorite?Perhaps my favorite is “fun”.Through today’s headlines, he has better understood human nature by grasping these precise data.He knows what he likes after the 90s, what he likes after the 00s, and what he likes after the 80s. Whom am I doing this thing for?I think it has something to do with it.  5, live broadcast of the new economy industry, short video 邬 Biwei: Similarly, Yingke as a live broadcast platform.What do you think of Yingke?  Zhao Xiaoguang: Yes, this is a good topic.I was actually very early, probably in 2015, I also helped a live-streaming business start-up. I have provided a lot of help, and in the process I still have a lot of insights about the industry.In fact, Yingke is up in the early days. Yingke is also a big man of various resources. He burns money through the initial capital.But now we can actually define it as declining. The core reason why Yingke disappears now is that it wants to make the video tool a platform.  Bi Wei: In essence, the platform is quite difficult to do, so it ends up giving some vertical segmented video websites or APPs to dismember its traffic.Similarly, if it is so recognized, I suddenly thought of a fast hand that is very hot now, before the vibrato came out.What do you think of President Zhao about this product?  Zhao Xiaoguang: I think if we talk about the transition from fast hand to vibrato, it will easily remind me of the development of smart phones.In fact, you can see that the first wave of saying that Xiaomi started with the reeling economy as its core, this label was put together.However, Xiaomi probably invested around 2014. It was found that the needs of the end user did not want to do reeling. The end user’s basic needs were two: the first was to get rid of the reeling and the second was to install X.  So I have a friend who also worked in the Internet industry for a long time, and he told me that installing X is the most solid demand.Of course, Xiaomi later adjusted its product strategy in a timely manner. I think it is very good now.  This is also the case for the live broadcast industry. In the beginning, the labeling of fast players was “filigree”, and you will see all kinds of very vulgar things.At first you will find it a little fun, but it will not bring you continuous fun, because it is easy for you to have no freshness.As for the way of vibrato, it is gradually developed through continuous and various fun technologies.Recently, I posted some fun videos on ARGO that combined AR technology with real-life scenes and sent them to many people.  Many people find this thing fun.Just because it will continue to create fun things through technological innovation.At this time you will find that, in fact, it is very similar to that year. Some say low-end smartphones and high-end smartphones: Everyone buys the low-end first. After buying the low-end, if you have money, you buy the high-end.In the beginning, playing fast hands was to see the vulgar, to see this three or four lines.But after the vibrato came out, in fact everyone ultimately pursued high-end.  So I think at this time, we can slowly reflect the essence of product positioning.There may not be much difference in the positioning of these two products at the beginning, but there may be an inevitable stage of development, that is, we see that the core explosion of the Internet is actually in third- and fourth-tier cities.So somehow at that time, assuming that vibrato came out first, maybe vibrato was first defined as a filiform, three or four line application.  But at that time, it was because the quick hand came out first, and then the vibrato appeared.The appearance of Douyin has its inevitability, and it has something to do with it actively embracing new technologies and accurate product positioning.But I think there is still room for the fast hand, which means that any product has its value.So when I talk about technology or products, they all have their value. I just say how to accurately locate there is the person who needs you, so this is how important the precise data I just talked about is.  Bi Wei: This short video appeared in the appearance of Kuaishou, which started in the third, fourth, and fifth tier cities, and then appeared because the vibrato was later than Kuaishou.It is equal to, first, it uses a lot of new technologies; second, because the fast hand is labeled, or it is actually a relatively fibrous product, the vibrato after that has taken a relative differenceRoute.That’s the way the whole Douyin now, for example, in the first, second and third tier cities, or in urban youths such as white-collar workers, go forward among urban youth, and go very well.  6. Xiaobi Wei, the “Xiaomi” of the New Economy Company: President Zhao mentioned a company just now, which is Xiaomi.Xiaomi is the first unit of Hong Kong’s new economy.Because in April of this year, Hong Kong made three major changes to this listing system: one is that companies with the same rights and different rights can come to Hong Kong for listing; the second is that some pharmaceutical companies without income can also come to Hong Kong for listing; thirdOf course, this is the case. Large companies that have already been listed overseas can go to Hong Kong for a secondary listing.On the first day of the announcement, Xiaomi offered to list in Hong Kong.What do you think?  Zhao Xiaoguang: In February 2015, I organized a meeting of Mr. Lei in Beijing.At that time, there were about 30 major investment institutions in our country, and then Mr. Lei chatted very excitedly for about 3 hours.I think there are three main points.The first point still revolves around what I said just now. All future technological competitions will focus on accurate data.  Then let’s think about Tencent’s access to our data through WeChat and QQ; Ali’s access to our data through Taobao; Baidu’s access to our data through search; but each of these data is not comprehensive, both areTake it from a certain angle.Only hardware manufacturers can put together all the data of a user to create a complete “you”, which is why the five major US technology giants are desperately doing hardware.  Whether it’s a smart phone, a smart watch, a VR, or a speaker . In fact, the ultimate purpose of Amazon’s speaker is not to allow you to interact easily, or even to get a lot of data through the speaker. This hardware spells outThe data is the most complete.At this time we saw China, at least I did not see that so far, BAT does not have a thing that can complete a complete hardware, so it cannot get complete data.  From this perspective, Xiaomi, Huawei, and OPPO are essentially the companies with the most accurate data and comprehensive accurate data.And Xiaomi knows the Internet best, because Lei always does the Internet.  So I think the first point, Xiaomi is the precise data grasped by the hardware, I think there should be a lot of room for cash in the future.The second point, in fact, I think that Lei always talks about it, just one idea: I want to make a lot of things not so expensive and cheap.In fact, we see that Xiaomi has entered the first-line camp on smartphones. In the end, it is different than Huawei and OPPO who are stronger and weaker.  At this time you find it to do something else.When it was used as a power bank, plug-in board, and purifier, it was made into a product and a high-end brand. At the same time, the price was particularly cheap. You can see that Xiaomi purifier is much cheaper than others.So what do I think is behind this?Behind it is when Xiaomi makes mobile phones, it gathers a wealth of people.  In the electronics industry, people are very interesting. They are all graduates from prestigious universities. The industry’s internal competition is particularly fierce, and large-scale production is particularly needed to respond quickly and iterate continuously.When Xiaomi is making a mobile phone, the combat effectiveness of these people is very strong.Now these people are like cavalry regiments one after another, one by one to capture the non-mobile phone industry, to capture the power bank, to capture the fans, and to capture various industries that are not so fiercely competitive. For this kind of commercialization or understanding of intelligenceFor industries that are not that deep, Xiaomi has made inroads into these fields, just like the Mongolian Empire went to Europe one by one, so I think it is the change in production relations behind it.  I remember last year, there was one of the largest panel companies in the country called BOE. At that time, President Chen of BOE kept telling me. You see, we have to do medical care, Internet of things, and hospitals.I was very puzzled at the time. How could it be possible for the electronics industry to set up a hospital?Later, I specifically interviewed people who used to be panels but were sent to hospitals. In fact, I found that it is the same as Xiaomi. Its unit per capita capacity is that the combat capability of a single person is far more than those of traditional methods.Business people.  I remember Fu Sheng said at the time. When Fu Sheng said that when Lei was digging at him, Lei always said a word to him: Human nature is heaven.Some time ago it wasn’t that how many billionaires Xiaomi would create after it went public, he wanted everyone to have a sense of participation in equity.Then this is a redefinition of production relations, and according to my judgment, it will definitely continue to evolve.  In fact, probably in 2014 and 2015, Xiaomi experienced a trough, and that trough was its inevitable stage, just like the quick stage that the fast hand had had.Because Xiaomi was originally a low-end and high-end mobile phone, no matter how high your performance is, everyone thinks that Xiaomi is a low-end brand. At that time, the strategy of making red rice did affect the high-end brand image.Xiaomi has this process, but I think this process has been scaled up in recent years, and Feng Shui has taken turns.  During the Spring Festival this year, we did about 3,000 questionnaires and found that everyone now regards OPPO as a more low-end brand.I think brands are constantly changing. From the perspective of hardware, it is not as secure as Internet companies.Like Tencent, it is impossible for me to use WeChat, because everyone uses it, and it has strong social attributes.  I don’t need Taobao, that’s impossible, because all the good merchants are on Taobao.But I do n’t need your Xiaomi phone, I can change one at any time, in 无锡夜网 fact, the replacement cost is not that high.So it requires that your organization’s organizational efficiency, management efficiency, and market response should be fast enough.I think Lei Jun is always a very pragmatic person who can constantly change himself. This is very important.  7. The “DJI” of the New Economy Company: Bi Biwei: Just now after listening to your introduction to Xiaomi, I suddenly thought of another one. Actually, it is a hardware company. I don’t think DJI has a very good company.machine.What do you think of this company in DJI?  Zhao Xiaoguang: If Xiaomi is compared with DJI, the simplest is that one is doing 2C and the other is doing 2B. The analysis framework and business model of 2C and 2B are definitely different.If DJI is a 2C drone company, then I think this company may be very dangerous.You have a drone, then there must be enough people in China to use the vertical price to make this drone solution, copy you, and then compete with you, killing you in the end without profit.  However, in the field of 2B, what is more prominent is the understanding of the industry application and the company’s depth and penetration of the industry in the process.Therefore, I think that the first-mover advantage in this field must be particularly obvious, and it will be continuously strengthened, so the space in DJI need not be considered too much from the issue of competition.  Because when we look at enterprises, we look at two points: the first is the space for demand; the second is competition.Some industries may have particularly good demand space, but the competition is fierce, which will eventually be eliminated.So I think this UAV field in DJI can be applied and expanded in all walks of life. The two core points of it are: the first is how the rocket enters various closed loops, the construction of the Internet of Things, and the system of the Internet of Things.I think this is more important.The second is to see that one of the biggest potential roles in the future is unmanned logistics and unmanned distribution.  8. How to evaluate new economy companies?  Bi Wei: To define a new economy company, what are the factors to look at? It is like saying that it is reasonable or unreasonable to define it.  Zhao Xiaoguang: From the perspective of estimation, especially early ones, because I haven’t done the first level, it is difficult to say, but I think there is no difference between the first level and the second level.How much this enterprise should be worth at one stage and how much it is worth at another stage is a dynamic matter.  I think there are mainly several analysis ideas: The first idea is a company. If you are optimistic and assume that it has done all the things it wants to do, it is placed in a traceable way, rather than saying that I am now making a mobile phone.Suddenly I went to make an airplane one day, then there are some traces of how much profit and market value it can make after it is gradually completed.Let me give an example, suppose he finally found that everything was done, and he could achieve a profit of about 2 billion, that is, a market value of 50 billion.  So the second idea is how far this company is doing now, and what percentage of it is done.If you do 10%, it is 5 billion market capitalization.The third is whether the enterprise will do this thing, will it be destroyed by others in the future?So how to prevent it from being destroyed by others?I think that the enterprise symbol does not meet the positive feedback, and the symbol does not meet the logic of getting better and better.  I will compare two companies here, and everyone will easily understand.The first is Didi, and the second is Mobike.Didi is such a good business model that it is too good, so at one stage it was proud and had various problems.Didi is essentially the same business model as Taobao, and its platform is a three-party entity.  What Taobao is, merchants, consumers and platforms.The more consumers, the more merchants willing to join, the more merchants to join, and the more consumers come to buy, it conforms to positive feedback. What is the result of positive feedback is the winner-take-all.Unless Jingdong is in some segmented areas and then has its own logistics system to compete with Taobao.Didi mode is the same. There are more owners who are willing to join, and you will have more users, because it is easier to find a car with Didi, and it is easier to find a car with more Didi users.The easier it is to find users, the more cars join, so it forms a positive feedback again. The result of positive feedback is that the winner takes all, and there is basically no second child.  However, Mobike is not like this, because Mobike’s car has to be clothed by itself, it does not meet the “more users, the more cars”.The result is to rely on your own investment. Once it reaches a stage, it will become its “management structure”, and various problems will occur, so Mobai finally has such an end.In fact, I was totally predictable about a year ago, because its business model does not meet positive feedback.Therefore, Mobai should not have such a high estimate at the time.  Although it said that its business model was minted, a user has 200 yuan, assuming there are 50 million users, not to mention the other 10 billion of this kind of stock funds, normal financial management may have a profit of 500 million.Not to mention commercial monetization, advertising, and all kinds of other monetization.But its shortcoming is that it does not meet the positive feedback, which leads to the possibility that in the end it may have problems in various ways, in various ways, management, or constantly new competitors join.  Because the core problem of Mobike is that it is inseparable from the offline nature of the shop.It is natural for the Internet to go offline.For example, e-commerce, it is naturally connected by logistics, but how to manage the cars off the Mobike line and how are they familiar with each city?You are familiar with Shanghai, how do you get to know Wuhu?How do you get familiar with Wuhan?But what is the mode of Didi, there are a lot of drivers who are familiar with Wuhu and Wuhan. I don’t need to be familiar with it. I only need a lot of people to use my platform.  And there is another reason, because some people say that I use Didi in Shanghai, then I basically use Didi when I go to Wuhan, so I can easily bring it over.This is not the case with Mobike.I ride a bicycle in Shanghai. I don’t necessarily go to Wuhan. After I go, I might find one there.  So from this point of view, there is a big problem in our estimation of Internet companies in the past is that it is easy to linearize-that is, you are good now, because the Internet burns money, especially in the past many O2O, it will burn money,Go up quickly, but it goes up fast, in fact it goes down fast.Because a large number of users are not sticky.There is no long-lasting performance. In some cases, this takeaway is the same for everyone. It doesn’t make much difference to me. Whether I use it or not depends on whether I think it is good or not.  The example I just gave is that, like WeChat, I can’t even tolerate WeChat products. I have to use it because all my social relationships are in it and it has social attributes.Another example is like Microsoft’s office. Even if you can’t bear the office, but some people will use it. If you want to talk about a PPT, you still have to use it. If you use something else, the computer won’t open. Others can’t understand it.However, I think that if there are some business models that are not in line with this type of industry, the estimation of it is actually to be particularly cautious.  Therefore, I think that the 2B industry is relatively easy to estimate. The 2C industry is particularly flexible in its estimation.Therefore, the industry that invests in 2C should be particularly cautious.In fact, we look at a lot of industries. If one day BAT flies and kills them regardless of cost, it may be destroyed overnight.  Bi Wei: The new economy and the old economy are essentially the basic logic of some businesses.  9. What are the trading strategies of listed new economy companies?  Bi Wei: In the Hong Kong market, the year before last year, there were three or four new economy companies, including Meitu, Yixin, Zhongan, and Tencent itself.When these companies went public at the time, they were very popular at the time of the IPO, and the valuation was very high when they went public.After one year, it is almost half of the decline from the high point. For these new economy companies, before and after listing, or at a stage of listing, do you think if a trading strategy is replaced, what kind of trading strategy isA more appropriate approach?  Zhao Xiaoguang: Actually this is about estimating how much it is worth, and how much it is worth at some stage.It is estimated that it is a black box for all of us, and my understanding is that the end result is a chain trend.Whether a company is worth 10 times or 20 times is worth 30 times.If it is in a chain up trend, then I think the market will be willing to give you high estimates.In the downward trend from the previous month, it is possible that the lower the value, the lower the value, and the lower the value.  To track the chain trend of enterprises, for professional institutional investors, we can track it through extensive research and verification after listing.For ordinary investors, I think there is a better place.Because these companies are all product-based companies, these products can be fully experienced.  It’s simple, you go and experience its products.For example, when it comes to Meitu, I look at Meitu: first, is your product getting better and better; second is whether your product is realizing.And if you monetize it, is it possible for me to pay for it.  So you look at Meitu, and now we turn on Meitu’s camera. It doesn’t seem to be realizing anything. It just makes you look better. At this time, it may not have found a way to monetize, so at this time its chain trend will not appearToo much change.If one day you discover, Meitu suddenly has something new.For example, when the two of us are in different places, but they are taken together as a photo, and I am willing to pay for membership.  In fact, I just talked about a lot of estimation problems. The core is who you sell the product to, your target audience, how much you are willing to pay for this product, which is very important.So we see that the industry that was easiest to make money in the past is this kind of entertainment, like games.People go shopping happily, which has a lot of flexibility.  Some people may only be willing to spend 1 yuan to pay, but some people are willing to spend 100 yuan and 500 yuan.So I think at this time, the easiest way for us to track these companies, as Peter Lynch said, is to experience the product, discover changes in the product, and whether these changes can bring it opportunities to make money.  10. How to identify new economy companies?  Bi Wei: More and more new economy companies will go to Hong Kong for listing.In my opinion, Hong Kong may be the most suitable for China’s new economy companies in terms of the listing system, but if you go through so many so-called new economy companies to list in Hong Kong, which one would you use? First, filter out someWhat do you think is a clearly problematic new economy company?  Zhao Xiaoguang: I think it is three categories.One type is easy to be killed by BAT.  Bi Wei: There are no industry barriers.  Zhao Xiaoguang: It is not that there are no industry barriers. It may be said by others that there are industry barriers, but if BAT is to come in, it will not have industry barriers.  In the second category, I think it is easy to be replaced by new technology.I saw a lot of lithium battery material companies myself, and after reading the results, I felt like I was sweating.Like the touch screen technology of the past, this industry must continue to advance in technology, then reduce costs, and then increase the overall energy density and performance, so it must have new technologies.And after this new technology comes out, one is one, the other is two, I’m better than you, and I’ll kill you.  The third category is easily followed by a large number of imitators.I think that if you are like these three types of companies, you must be very careful.If you are a good business model, someone will definitely come in, unless your business model is problematic.  What do I prefer?The first is to form a closed loop in a very precise closed-loop, or very precise user, to form an accurate product positioning.I think it is typical that it will often meet the characteristics of positive feedback. Therefore, the first is that its positioning is more accurate, and the second is that it conforms to positive feedback. Its expansion is endogenous, with its own halo expansion., It does not need to do anything to expand, then I especially like the above two companies.  And some companies depend on you to continue to rely on yourself to lay out resources, to distribute resources, to distribute products to expand, then it will often have problems to a certain extent.  The field of 2C is more and more cautious, and the precise data of the entire core is increasingly being taken away by these big giants.They have their own ecological layout.In each of the most core areas, there are their own companies, so I think we must be cautious.  In the 2B area, it is relatively optimistic.For the positioning of this special group, some children are still optimistic.I happened to take a look at Thumb Plaza in Shanghai recently on the weekend and found that all the shops on the second floor of the square have been closed and all of them have been replaced by children.  I saw a project some time ago. It was in a second-tier city in the northeast. They built a 16,000 square meter mall. This mall is all children.If your child goes in, you have to play a game console; you have to exercise, you have to experience all kinds of ball sports, experience to drive, experience to be a doctor; you have to go to training, various training classes; you have to go shopping, variousClothes; you have to socialize, it has kids socializing and English corner; and there is Party.You send the children in for 2600 yuan a year.  It is now open for more than two months, and is full every weekend, and many tour groups from other places bring groups, so it meets a very precise positioning.Just looking for children, but also realized a completely labelled and scale-effect scene for this business.Like Japan, there is a person who specializes in the elderly. The elderly exercise in it and solve various lonely problems. It is also oriented to this particular person and realizes a full range of services for them.I think this model may kill a way.  Beyond that, if you don’t see a great opportunity, then it is a risk.It is this business model that has no value in itself, no one pays for it, and ultimately makes no money.Or even if some people make money for a while, a lot of people rush in.So we see that under the BAT empire, and now can OK, are to form one after another is accurate or precise positioning of the closed loop: smart investors Source: Snowball

Xishan Coal and Electricity (000983) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Equity Acquisition Value Added Performance Outward Growth Is Still Ongoing

Xishan Coal and Electricity (000983) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Equity Acquisition Value Added Performance Outward Growth Is Still Ongoing
Event: Xishan Coal and Electricity released the third quarter report of 2019.In the first three quarters of 2019, the company’s operating income was 246.200 million, an annual increase of 5.5%; net profit attributable to mother 18.10,000 yuan, an increase of 18 in ten years.7%; EPS 0.57 yuan.Among them, the operating income of the company in Q3 2019 was 7天津夜网7.300 million, down 4 each year.8%; net profit attributable to mother 5.40,000 yuan, an increase of 32 in ten years.0%; EPS 0.17 yuan. Acquired the equity of Jinxing Energy to improve profitability.The main area of the company’s reported significant increase in net profit was due to the acquisition of equity in Jinxing Energy.2019Q3 company to 12.8 trillion Huaneng International purchased a 10% stake in Jinxing Energy.After the completion of the acquisition, the company’s shareholding in Jinxing Energy increased from 80% to 90%.Jinxing Energy is an important holding subsidiary of the company’s coal sector. Jinxing Energy Inclined Gully Mine is one of the 10 coal mines of the national coal industry’s “11th Five-Year Plan” plan and construction, with alternative competitive advantages and developmentPotential, equity acquisition is in line with the company’s long-term development strategy.The company will further increase its controlling stake in Jinxing Energy to provide support for continued and stable operations. In the third quarter of 2019, the price of coking coal was stable, and the management of receivables and receivables continued to improve.Taking the mid-price Xinhua Shanxi coking coal price index as an example, the 2019Q3 coking coal spot index was 1070 points, a slight increase of 20 points compared with the same period last year.Shanxi Coking Coal Group, the company’s major shareholder, is the co-maker of the long-term co-operation mechanism of coking coal.The turnover rate of accounts receivable in Q3 2019 was 10.2. Promote 1 every year.4. Outward acquisition or the company’s main growth pattern in the future.Under current international indicators, coal is an important driver of regional economic transformation and energy revolution.2019 is also the year of victory in the reform of the country. The central budget also proposes a major strategy for the energy revolution.At the end of 18, the coking coal group’s asset securitization rate was 25.At 7%, Xishan Coal Power’s coal production accounts for 27% of Coking Coal Group.5%.We reported in September 2019 that “One side is stable, the other is elastic-Xishan Coal and Electricity (000983.(SZ) Investment Value Analysis Report puts forward that the company, as the group’s coking coal listing platform, will inject assets into the space barrier, outsource acquisitions or the main future growth mode.The acquisition in the third quarter and the company’s increase in holdings of Jinxing Energy Plan confirm our judgment on the company’s growth pattern. Earnings forecast and investment grade: Maintain earnings forecast. Net profit for 2019-2021 is expected to be 19 respectively.5/20.7/21.30,000 yuan, the corresponding EPS is 0.62/0.66/0.68 yuan, the current sustainable corresponding PE is 9 respectively.5/8.9/8.7 times.Maintain “Buy” rating. Risk reminders: coking coal prices go down; Shanxi is improving slowly; environmental protection and production restrictions curb downstream demand

Wanwei High-tech (600063): Achievements in performance forecast, new materials worth looking forward to

Wanwei High-tech (600063): Achievements in performance 北京桑拿洗浴保健 forecast, new materials worth looking forward to
I. Overview of the event The company issued a pre-announcement of 2019 results, and it is estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies will be 3 in 2019.6?40,000 yuan, an increase of 176 in ten years.92% -207.69%.Based on the principle of caution, the company expects to make provision for impairment losses1.9?2.5 billion.  Second, analysis and judgment of PVA demand upward, Mengwei achieved full production in the first three quarters of 2019, the company’s PVA external sales was 17.06 is the highest, with an annual growth rate of about 15%. It is expected that sales will continue to grow rapidly due to two main reasons: First, the demand for new materials such as PVA optical films, PVB, etc. continues to grow; second, exportsContinue good growth 重庆桑拿网 momentum.The subsidiary Mengwei has a capacity of 20 PVA and has only a certain cost advantage. Driven by demand, Mengwei produced at full capacity and achieved a breakthrough performance contribution. The company with a long track record of TFT-level PVA optical film projects has achieved 5 million square meters of PVA optical film industrialization experience. The main products are small-size polarizers for liquid crystal displays and polarizers for glasses.After years of research and development, the company’s TFT-level PVA optical film production technology has also achieved major technological breakthroughs. The 7 million square meters of optical film and polarizer project invested in 2018 is expected to be put into production in 2020.After being put into production, it will help to realize the import substitution of TFT-level PVA optical films, and at the same time strive to open the tourmaline-PVA-optical film-polarizer industry chain and enhance the company’s integrated profitability. High-strength and high-mode PVA fibers usher in rapid growth. Before 2014, the company’s high-strength and high-mode PVA fibers were in the market development period, and the annual output was basically stable at 1?Two.After 2015, through the gradual opening of the market, the production and sales volume has ushered in continuous growth, and the output has increased from 2 in 2015.The growth rate increased from 35 to 4 in 2018.12 Every year, the average annual rate is about 25%, which drives the demand for upstream PVA.  Third, investment recommendations We expect the company’s EPS in 2019-2021 to be 0.21.0.34, 0.43 yuan, corresponding to the current expected PE of 17.0, 10.5 and 8.3 times, the company PB (MRQ) is 1.39 times, industry median value 2.42 times, maintaining the “recommended” level.  4. Risk warning: the industry exits production capacity and resumes production beyond expectations; the prices of raw materials have risen sharply, and the progress of polarizers has fallen short of expectations.