Zhao Xiaoguang: How to define the new economy and the screening of new economy companies

Zhao Xiaoguang: How to define the “new economy” and the screening of “new economy” companies
New Fortune Platinum analyst Zhao Xiaoguang: How to define “new economy” and “new economy” companies Source: Tianfeng Securities Research Institute1, how to define the new economy?  Bi Wei: Hello everyone, we are Futu Securities.Today we are fortunate to invite Mr. Zhao Xiaoguang and Mr. Zhao to come and share with us some relevant views on the new economy and new economy companies.We will do some relatively in-depth communication with President Zhao here.Now everyone is talking about the new economy, the new economy.So how do you feel as a professional institution to accurately define this new economy?  Zhao Xiaoguang: I think there should be different interpretations of the new economy from different dimensions.From the perspective of the results, the so-called new economy, I think, should be the improvement of the production efficiency of the entire society and the improvement of the satisfaction of consumer demand.  Judging from the way to solve, or the way the new economy is generated, if it returns to the enterprise, the two major elements of the enterprise: the relationship between production and production.High quality refers to the technical aspect; production relationship refers to the way in which the business organization and the consumer have a relationship.We think that all should return to technology.  Improvement-technology We think that there are two major categories, one is specialized technology: specialized technology is placed on the sofa we sit on, it is a new material, this is specialized technology.The second category we define as instrumental technology.Specifically, it can be understood that these technologies help various traditional industries to redefine their own improvement and production relations, which brings more satisfaction to consumers, and the improvement of the production efficiency and social efficiency of the entire society.  Production relationship-we can understand it as follows: First, the production relationship within the enterprise.We used to look at many outstanding Internet companies in China, and more often we saw changes in its business formats and business models.What I see behind is more about the changes in its organizational form, incentive mechanism, and partner model, so I think this is an internal incentive mechanism issue.  The second is the management model.With big data, artificial intelligence is increasingly replacing people, and after replacing experience, then management with big data and artificial intelligence as the core has become a very important way for enterprises.  The third is the relationship between enterprises and customers, including 2C and 2B customers, how to transfer your products and services to customers, how to transfer customer data to you, and provide you with a better and updated experience.  2. Are there some typical new economy industries and companies?  Bi Wei: Do you have some generalizations about the so-called new economy industries or companies that are typical today?  Zhao Xiaoguang: I think there are three main types of companies today.The first is a breakthrough with technology as the core.For example, Shenzhen Rouyu Technology (using new display technology and new material technology to change many industries).  The second is that many companies like the Internet, like Mobike, Didi, through changes in production relations.They use certain information technology (but there is nothing new in information technology), combining information technology with the organization of the industry.This is more of a change in production relations.  The third is to overlap high quality and production relations.More typical, such as Tesla in the automotive industry, has just changed the way the entire automotive industry uses energy through new battery technologies.  At the same time, we can see that the changes brought about by the entire automotive industry’s supply chain relationship, procurement relationship, and market relationship are a closed-loop format, and a format that is continuously strengthened by positive feedback.So we see that there are some industries and companies, some say music, education, car services, and some finance, they have gradually become closed-loop formats.  3, the “self-driving” of the new economy industry: Bi Biwei: Companies like Baidu are doing self-driving technology.Is it a change in production relations that you speak of?Or change in competitiveness?Or is the production relationship and the economy changing?  Zhao Xiaoguang: From the perspective of driverless technology, we believe that there should be a lot of room for the future.It is mainly based on the scheme of either radar or multi-camera and then artificial intelligence recognition.I can talk about the development of voice technology in the past, because behind the scenes of driverless technology is actually an application of video technology.  In terms of voice technology, around 2010, there was a leading voice company in China called HKUST Xunfei. At that time, HKUST Xunfei was also based on single-machine recognition.At that time, 3G was not yet available, so it could only be identified based on the entire mobile phone. The recognition rate was only about 40%.Later, in the second half of 2010, 3G began to be promoted, and the transmission speed began to accelerate significantly. It began to change from a single machine to cloud computing.  After our voice is received from the mobile phone, it is transmitted to the cloud through the network. There is a huge server in the cloud. Sometimes it is said that 10 million people speak the word “Futu Securities” on this server.The data can be easily identified, and then transmitted over the network to tell you what the word I said is.I remember that it was amazing at the time that in a very short time, its recognition rate increased from more than 40% to 97%, 98%.By now everyone basically feels that HKUST Xunfei is a very good voice company.  For now, I think there are still two steps to go for unmanned driving. The initial step is to change from a single machine to a cloud computing solution.At present, they are all stand-alone GPU solutions. I think after switching to 5G development, it should become a cloud computing solution.Because the computing power of a powerful cloud server is always more than that of a single GPU, this step also depends on technological changes.  Looking back, somehow why are there so many problems with autonomous driving now?Why do you say it is immature?In fact, it is very mature, but in the driving industry, there is a permanent accident.So when a Tesla accident occurs, the whole world will ask Tesla what happened?All kinds of accidents should be prevented.  As an example, suppose I am driving on the side of the road now, and I pass through the wall at the corner. You can’t see it. Suddenly, a truck truck hits you.So I think the second step of driverless is to master your precise position.In addition to our current scan of the surroundings by the radar and observation of the surroundings by the camera, an important technology in the future is to master your precise position.  Some time ago, I also looked at some of these companies, and found that our current navigation can actually only be accurate to 5-10 meters, so it must be unsafe, because 5-10 meters is a very large probability of error.Then if you can use satellite navigation and low-orbit satellite navigation to make it accurate to 5-10 centimeters, we can think of a scene where every car I know where I am now, the precise position, how muchMoving at an hour.  In fact, at this time, you can guess boldly, even if you don’t need the current camera and radar, you can achieve unmanned driving.Because every detail is at your fingertips, knowing your speed and position at all times is the relative position.It can be calculated through our simple physics and mathematics.In this context, it can be seen that technological changes are important to the whole of unmanned driving.  At the same time, we can see that the so-called self-driving is actually artificial intelligence, and the support behind it comes from data.No matter the technical solution we see now or the future technical solution, the core is to be able to get data.Data is technology, data is strength.  At this time, data needs to be obtained through changes in some production relationships.So at this time, that is to say, how do you change the format of this auto industry, and the relationship between cars and consumers allows you to get this data.As unmanned is more typical, it needs both continuous optimization and improvement to prevent the probability of one in 10,000 errors, and it also requires changes in production relations to get data.More and more formats in the future, you will find it in line with positive feedback, that is, the more data, the better the effect, the better the effect, the more people use it, the more data, and the better the effect.  Therefore, if you can meet two points at the same time, I think it will win, that is, the winner takes all.The opponent’s error rate is 0.01%, yours is 0.001% more people use the top, the former is abandoned.  4. “The Headlines Today” of New Economy Corporation: Bi Biwei: Among the current New Economy Corporations, there are also some companies that actually penetrate into every aspect of people’s lives.Of course, I think maybe Tencent, Ali, should be the most penetrated.But we will also see that there are some very new emerging economy companies, and their development momentum is very strong.For example, what do you think is similar to today ‘s headlines?  Zhao Xiaoguang: Today’s headline is not a search company, but I want to start from the search industry to understand the business value of today’s headline.There are actually different technological evolutions in the search industry.The initial search was actually Microsoft.  In Microsoft’s eyes, it thinks that search is a technology-related thing, so when Microsoft started to search, it designed a set of algorithms.For example, if I want to search for “Futu Securities”, then I have to develop a set of algorithms to decide which news or which webpage can be ranked on the first page, and which is ranked on the second page.Later, Google also searched, because Google thinks that business is data, and it thinks that search is a data business.For example, I saw 1 million people searching for “Futu Securities”, and about 200,000 people opened Futu Securities. Our activity today, then I will put this first.I rank according to activity, and I believe that the more people use it and search for it, the more likely it is to more people.  I believe that the future search industry is about to enter an era of precise search.That is to say, the results obtained by different people searching “Futuo Securities” are different. For example, if I am an investment person, then I may search Fortune Securities, the purpose is to open an account with you; If I am a college student, then I would search for “Futuo Securities”, maybe I am looking for a job opportunity; if I am an entrepreneur, then I may want to see if there are opportunities for business cooperation; if IIt is a human resources company, so what I want to see most is whether there are opportunities for human resources cooperation.At this time, it is necessary to directly perform information optimization matching through accurate positioning of the search subject.I think this is the application of accurate data in search.  So from this point of view, what is the value of today ‘s headlines?It acquires your various reading habits, and it grasps your precise data to know what kind of person you are.Therefore, if this precise data is commercialized in the future, it can actually be realized in many fields.Traditional methods such as news reading, I think that the content source will become more of a platform, satisfying positive feedback, that is, the more media are willing to join it, the more readers are willing to watch, then the formationA strong positive feedback, but also has a certain social attributes.  So we define BAT as a black hole. It is a black hole of funds and a black hole of data. BAT can already get enough data. A large number of Internet startups actually have a strong crisis.In this context, if today’s headline can be completed to the present degree, and if it knows that the realization of more and more accurate data in the future will be known, I think it is still more optimistic.  Probably in 2014, I and Zhang Yiming went to the United States to see a lot of technology companies, and they still have intersections.But I have n’t had a chance to ask him. I think that when he was doing today ‘s headline, he discovered the core point of a person. What was his favorite?Perhaps my favorite is “fun”.Through today’s headlines, he has better understood human nature by grasping these precise data.He knows what he likes after the 90s, what he likes after the 00s, and what he likes after the 80s. Whom am I doing this thing for?I think it has something to do with it.  5, live broadcast of the new economy industry, short video 邬 Biwei: Similarly, Yingke as a live broadcast platform.What do you think of Yingke?  Zhao Xiaoguang: Yes, this is a good topic.I was actually very early, probably in 2015, I also helped a live-streaming business start-up. I have provided a lot of help, and in the process I still have a lot of insights about the industry.In fact, Yingke is up in the early days. Yingke is also a big man of various resources. He burns money through the initial capital.But now we can actually define it as declining. The core reason why Yingke disappears now is that it wants to make the video tool a platform.  Bi Wei: In essence, the platform is quite difficult to do, so it ends up giving some vertical segmented video websites or APPs to dismember its traffic.Similarly, if it is so recognized, I suddenly thought of a fast hand that is very hot now, before the vibrato came out.What do you think of President Zhao about this product?  Zhao Xiaoguang: I think if we talk about the transition from fast hand to vibrato, it will easily remind me of the development of smart phones.In fact, you can see that the first wave of saying that Xiaomi started with the reeling economy as its core, this label was put together.However, Xiaomi probably invested around 2014. It was found that the needs of the end user did not want to do reeling. The end user’s basic needs were two: the first was to get rid of the reeling and the second was to install X.  So I have a friend who also worked in the Internet industry for a long time, and he told me that installing X is the most solid demand.Of course, Xiaomi later adjusted its product strategy in a timely manner. I think it is very good now.  This is also the case for the live broadcast industry. In the beginning, the labeling of fast players was “filigree”, and you will see all kinds of very vulgar things.At first you will find it a little fun, but it will not bring you continuous fun, because it is easy for you to have no freshness.As for the way of vibrato, it is gradually developed through continuous and various fun technologies.Recently, I posted some fun videos on ARGO that combined AR technology with real-life scenes and sent them to many people.  Many people find this thing fun.Just because it will continue to create fun things through technological innovation.At this time you will find that, in fact, it is very similar to that year. Some say low-end smartphones and high-end smartphones: Everyone buys the low-end first. After buying the low-end, if you have money, you buy the high-end.In the beginning, playing fast hands was to see the vulgar, to see this three or four lines.But after the vibrato came out, in fact everyone ultimately pursued high-end.  So I think at this time, we can slowly reflect the essence of product positioning.There may not be much difference in the positioning of these two products at the beginning, but there may be an inevitable stage of development, that is, we see that the core explosion of the Internet is actually in third- and fourth-tier cities.So somehow at that time, assuming that vibrato came out first, maybe vibrato was first defined as a filiform, three or four line application.  But at that time, it was because the quick hand came out first, and then the vibrato appeared.The appearance of Douyin has its inevitability, and it has something to do with it actively embracing new technologies and accurate product positioning.But I think there is still room for the fast hand, which means that any product has its value.So when I talk about technology or products, they all have their value. I just say how to accurately locate there is the person who needs you, so this is how important the precise data I just talked about is.  Bi Wei: This short video appeared in the appearance of Kuaishou, which started in the third, fourth, and fifth tier cities, and then appeared because the vibrato was later than Kuaishou.It is equal to, first, it uses a lot of new technologies; second, because the fast hand is labeled, or it is actually a relatively fibrous product, the vibrato after that has taken a relative differenceRoute.That’s the way the whole Douyin now, for example, in the first, second and third tier cities, or in urban youths such as white-collar workers, go forward among urban youth, and go very well.  6. Xiaobi Wei, the “Xiaomi” of the New Economy Company: President Zhao mentioned a company just now, which is Xiaomi.Xiaomi is the first unit of Hong Kong’s new economy.Because in April of this year, Hong Kong made three major changes to this listing system: one is that companies with the same rights and different rights can come to Hong Kong for listing; the second is that some pharmaceutical companies without income can also come to Hong Kong for listing; thirdOf course, this is the case. Large companies that have already been listed overseas can go to Hong Kong for a secondary listing.On the first day of the announcement, Xiaomi offered to list in Hong Kong.What do you think?  Zhao Xiaoguang: In February 2015, I organized a meeting of Mr. Lei in Beijing.At that time, there were about 30 major investment institutions in our country, and then Mr. Lei chatted very excitedly for about 3 hours.I think there are three main points.The first point still revolves around what I said just now. All future technological competitions will focus on accurate data.  Then let’s think about Tencent’s access to our data through WeChat and QQ; Ali’s access to our data through Taobao; Baidu’s access to our data through search; but each of these data is not comprehensive, both areTake it from a certain angle.Only hardware manufacturers can put together all the data of a user to create a complete “you”, which is why the five major US technology giants are desperately doing hardware.  Whether it’s a smart phone, a smart watch, a VR, or a speaker . In fact, the ultimate purpose of Amazon’s speaker is not to allow you to interact easily, or even to get a lot of data through the speaker. This hardware spells outThe data is the most complete.At this time we saw China, at least I did not see that so far, BAT does not have a thing that can complete a complete hardware, so it cannot get complete data.  From this perspective, Xiaomi, Huawei, and OPPO are essentially the companies with the most accurate data and comprehensive accurate data.And Xiaomi knows the Internet best, because Lei always does the Internet.  So I think the first point, Xiaomi is the precise data grasped by the hardware, I think there should be a lot of room for cash in the future.The second point, in fact, I think that Lei always talks about it, just one idea: I want to make a lot of things not so expensive and cheap.In fact, we see that Xiaomi has entered the first-line camp on smartphones. In the end, it is different than Huawei and OPPO who are stronger and weaker.  At this time you find it to do something else.When it was used as a power bank, plug-in board, and purifier, it was made into a product and a high-end brand. At the same time, the price was particularly cheap. You can see that Xiaomi purifier is much cheaper than others.So what do I think is behind this?Behind it is when Xiaomi makes mobile phones, it gathers a wealth of people.  In the electronics industry, people are very interesting. They are all graduates from prestigious universities. The industry’s internal competition is particularly fierce, and large-scale production is particularly needed to respond quickly and iterate continuously.When Xiaomi is making a mobile phone, the combat effectiveness of these people is very strong.Now these people are like cavalry regiments one after another, one by one to capture the non-mobile phone industry, to capture the power bank, to capture the fans, and to capture various industries that are not so fiercely competitive. For this kind of commercialization or understanding of intelligenceFor industries that are not that deep, Xiaomi has made inroads into these fields, just like the Mongolian Empire went to Europe one by one, so I think it is the change in production relations behind it.  I remember last year, there was one of the largest panel companies in the country called BOE. At that time, President Chen of BOE kept telling me. You see, we have to do medical care, Internet of things, and hospitals.I was very puzzled at the time. How could it be possible for the electronics industry to set up a hospital?Later, I specifically interviewed people who used to be panels but were sent to hospitals. In fact, I found that it is the same as Xiaomi. Its unit per capita capacity is that the combat capability of a single person is far more than those of traditional methods.Business people.  I remember Fu Sheng said at the time. When Fu Sheng said that when Lei was digging at him, Lei always said a word to him: Human nature is heaven.Some time ago it wasn’t that how many billionaires Xiaomi would create after it went public, he wanted everyone to have a sense of participation in equity.Then this is a redefinition of production relations, and according to my judgment, it will definitely continue to evolve.  In fact, probably in 2014 and 2015, Xiaomi experienced a trough, and that trough was its inevitable stage, just like the quick stage that the fast hand had had.Because Xiaomi was originally a low-end and high-end mobile phone, no matter how high your performance is, everyone thinks that Xiaomi is a low-end brand. At that time, the strategy of making red rice did affect the high-end brand image.Xiaomi has this process, but I think this process has been scaled up in recent years, and Feng Shui has taken turns.  During the Spring Festival this year, we did about 3,000 questionnaires and found that everyone now regards OPPO as a more low-end brand.I think brands are constantly changing. From the perspective of hardware, it is not as secure as Internet companies.Like Tencent, it is impossible for me to use WeChat, because everyone uses it, and it has strong social attributes.  I don’t need Taobao, that’s impossible, because all the good merchants are on Taobao.But I do n’t need your Xiaomi phone, I can change one at any time, in 无锡夜网 fact, the replacement cost is not that high.So it requires that your organization’s organizational efficiency, management efficiency, and market response should be fast enough.I think Lei Jun is always a very pragmatic person who can constantly change himself. This is very important.  7. The “DJI” of the New Economy Company: Bi Biwei: Just now after listening to your introduction to Xiaomi, I suddenly thought of another one. Actually, it is a hardware company. I don’t think DJI has a very good company.machine.What do you think of this company in DJI?  Zhao Xiaoguang: If Xiaomi is compared with DJI, the simplest is that one is doing 2C and the other is doing 2B. The analysis framework and business model of 2C and 2B are definitely different.If DJI is a 2C drone company, then I think this company may be very dangerous.You have a drone, then there must be enough people in China to use the vertical price to make this drone solution, copy you, and then compete with you, killing you in the end without profit.  However, in the field of 2B, what is more prominent is the understanding of the industry application and the company’s depth and penetration of the industry in the process.Therefore, I think that the first-mover advantage in this field must be particularly obvious, and it will be continuously strengthened, so the space in DJI need not be considered too much from the issue of competition.  Because when we look at enterprises, we look at two points: the first is the space for demand; the second is competition.Some industries may have particularly good demand space, but the competition is fierce, which will eventually be eliminated.So I think this UAV field in DJI can be applied and expanded in all walks of life. The two core points of it are: the first is how the rocket enters various closed loops, the construction of the Internet of Things, and the system of the Internet of Things.I think this is more important.The second is to see that one of the biggest potential roles in the future is unmanned logistics and unmanned distribution.  8. How to evaluate new economy companies?  Bi Wei: To define a new economy company, what are the factors to look at? It is like saying that it is reasonable or unreasonable to define it.  Zhao Xiaoguang: From the perspective of estimation, especially early ones, because I haven’t done the first level, it is difficult to say, but I think there is no difference between the first level and the second level.How much this enterprise should be worth at one stage and how much it is worth at another stage is a dynamic matter.  I think there are mainly several analysis ideas: The first idea is a company. If you are optimistic and assume that it has done all the things it wants to do, it is placed in a traceable way, rather than saying that I am now making a mobile phone.Suddenly I went to make an airplane one day, then there are some traces of how much profit and market value it can make after it is gradually completed.Let me give an example, suppose he finally found that everything was done, and he could achieve a profit of about 2 billion, that is, a market value of 50 billion.  So the second idea is how far this company is doing now, and what percentage of it is done.If you do 10%, it is 5 billion market capitalization.The third is whether the enterprise will do this thing, will it be destroyed by others in the future?So how to prevent it from being destroyed by others?I think that the enterprise symbol does not meet the positive feedback, and the symbol does not meet the logic of getting better and better.  I will compare two companies here, and everyone will easily understand.The first is Didi, and the second is Mobike.Didi is such a good business model that it is too good, so at one stage it was proud and had various problems.Didi is essentially the same business model as Taobao, and its platform is a three-party entity.  What Taobao is, merchants, consumers and platforms.The more consumers, the more merchants willing to join, the more merchants to join, and the more consumers come to buy, it conforms to positive feedback. What is the result of positive feedback is the winner-take-all.Unless Jingdong is in some segmented areas and then has its own logistics system to compete with Taobao.Didi mode is the same. There are more owners who are willing to join, and you will have more users, because it is easier to find a car with Didi, and it is easier to find a car with more Didi users.The easier it is to find users, the more cars join, so it forms a positive feedback again. The result of positive feedback is that the winner takes all, and there is basically no second child.  However, Mobike is not like this, because Mobike’s car has to be clothed by itself, it does not meet the “more users, the more cars”.The result is to rely on your own investment. Once it reaches a stage, it will become its “management structure”, and various problems will occur, so Mobai finally has such an end.In fact, I was totally predictable about a year ago, because its business model does not meet positive feedback.Therefore, Mobai should not have such a high estimate at the time.  Although it said that its business model was minted, a user has 200 yuan, assuming there are 50 million users, not to mention the other 10 billion of this kind of stock funds, normal financial management may have a profit of 500 million.Not to mention commercial monetization, advertising, and all kinds of other monetization.But its shortcoming is that it does not meet the positive feedback, which leads to the possibility that in the end it may have problems in various ways, in various ways, management, or constantly new competitors join.  Because the core problem of Mobike is that it is inseparable from the offline nature of the shop.It is natural for the Internet to go offline.For example, e-commerce, it is naturally connected by logistics, but how to manage the cars off the Mobike line and how are they familiar with each city?You are familiar with Shanghai, how do you get to know Wuhu?How do you get familiar with Wuhan?But what is the mode of Didi, there are a lot of drivers who are familiar with Wuhu and Wuhan. I don’t need to be familiar with it. I only need a lot of people to use my platform.  And there is another reason, because some people say that I use Didi in Shanghai, then I basically use Didi when I go to Wuhan, so I can easily bring it over.This is not the case with Mobike.I ride a bicycle in Shanghai. I don’t necessarily go to Wuhan. After I go, I might find one there.  So from this point of view, there is a big problem in our estimation of Internet companies in the past is that it is easy to linearize-that is, you are good now, because the Internet burns money, especially in the past many O2O, it will burn money,Go up quickly, but it goes up fast, in fact it goes down fast.Because a large number of users are not sticky.There is no long-lasting performance. In some cases, this takeaway is the same for everyone. It doesn’t make much difference to me. Whether I use it or not depends on whether I think it is good or not.  The example I just gave is that, like WeChat, I can’t even tolerate WeChat products. I have to use it because all my social relationships are in it and it has social attributes.Another example is like Microsoft’s office. Even if you can’t bear the office, but some people will use it. If you want to talk about a PPT, you still have to use it. If you use something else, the computer won’t open. Others can’t understand it.However, I think that if there are some business models that are not in line with this type of industry, the estimation of it is actually to be particularly cautious.  Therefore, I think that the 2B industry is relatively easy to estimate. The 2C industry is particularly flexible in its estimation.Therefore, the industry that invests in 2C should be particularly cautious.In fact, we look at a lot of industries. If one day BAT flies and kills them regardless of cost, it may be destroyed overnight.  Bi Wei: The new economy and the old economy are essentially the basic logic of some businesses.  9. What are the trading strategies of listed new economy companies?  Bi Wei: In the Hong Kong market, the year before last year, there were three or four new economy companies, including Meitu, Yixin, Zhongan, and Tencent itself.When these companies went public at the time, they were very popular at the time of the IPO, and the valuation was very high when they went public.After one year, it is almost half of the decline from the high point. For these new economy companies, before and after listing, or at a stage of listing, do you think if a trading strategy is replaced, what kind of trading strategy isA more appropriate approach?  Zhao Xiaoguang: Actually this is about estimating how much it is worth, and how much it is worth at some stage.It is estimated that it is a black box for all of us, and my understanding is that the end result is a chain trend.Whether a company is worth 10 times or 20 times is worth 30 times.If it is in a chain up trend, then I think the market will be willing to give you high estimates.In the downward trend from the previous month, it is possible that the lower the value, the lower the value, and the lower the value.  To track the chain trend of enterprises, for professional institutional investors, we can track it through extensive research and verification after listing.For ordinary investors, I think there is a better place.Because these companies are all product-based companies, these products can be fully experienced.  It’s simple, you go and experience its products.For example, when it comes to Meitu, I look at Meitu: first, is your product getting better and better; second is whether your product is realizing.And if you monetize it, is it possible for me to pay for it.  So you look at Meitu, and now we turn on Meitu’s camera. It doesn’t seem to be realizing anything. It just makes you look better. At this time, it may not have found a way to monetize, so at this time its chain trend will not appearToo much change.If one day you discover, Meitu suddenly has something new.For example, when the two of us are in different places, but they are taken together as a photo, and I am willing to pay for membership.  In fact, I just talked about a lot of estimation problems. The core is who you sell the product to, your target audience, how much you are willing to pay for this product, which is very important.So we see that the industry that was easiest to make money in the past is this kind of entertainment, like games.People go shopping happily, which has a lot of flexibility.  Some people may only be willing to spend 1 yuan to pay, but some people are willing to spend 100 yuan and 500 yuan.So I think at this time, the easiest way for us to track these companies, as Peter Lynch said, is to experience the product, discover changes in the product, and whether these changes can bring it opportunities to make money.  10. How to identify new economy companies?  Bi Wei: More and more new economy companies will go to Hong Kong for listing.In my opinion, Hong Kong may be the most suitable for China’s new economy companies in terms of the listing system, but if you go through so many so-called new economy companies to list in Hong Kong, which one would you use? First, filter out someWhat do you think is a clearly problematic new economy company?  Zhao Xiaoguang: I think it is three categories.One type is easy to be killed by BAT.  Bi Wei: There are no industry barriers.  Zhao Xiaoguang: It is not that there are no industry barriers. It may be said by others that there are industry barriers, but if BAT is to come in, it will not have industry barriers.  In the second category, I think it is easy to be replaced by new technology.I saw a lot of lithium battery material companies myself, and after reading the results, I felt like I was sweating.Like the touch screen technology of the past, this industry must continue to advance in technology, then reduce costs, and then increase the overall energy density and performance, so it must have new technologies.And after this new technology comes out, one is one, the other is two, I’m better than you, and I’ll kill you.  The third category is easily followed by a large number of imitators.I think that if you are like these three types of companies, you must be very careful.If you are a good business model, someone will definitely come in, unless your business model is problematic.  What do I prefer?The first is to form a closed loop in a very precise closed-loop, or very precise user, to form an accurate product positioning.I think it is typical that it will often meet the characteristics of positive feedback. Therefore, the first is that its positioning is more accurate, and the second is that it conforms to positive feedback. Its expansion is endogenous, with its own halo expansion., It does not need to do anything to expand, then I especially like the above two companies.  And some companies depend on you to continue to rely on yourself to lay out resources, to distribute resources, to distribute products to expand, then it will often have problems to a certain extent.  The field of 2C is more and more cautious, and the precise data of the entire core is increasingly being taken away by these big giants.They have their own ecological layout.In each of the most core areas, there are their own companies, so I think we must be cautious.  In the 2B area, it is relatively optimistic.For the positioning of this special group, some children are still optimistic.I happened to take a look at Thumb Plaza in Shanghai recently on the weekend and found that all the shops on the second floor of the square have been closed and all of them have been replaced by children.  I saw a project some time ago. It was in a second-tier city in the northeast. They built a 16,000 square meter mall. This mall is all children.If your child goes in, you have to play a game console; you have to exercise, you have to experience all kinds of ball sports, experience to drive, experience to be a doctor; you have to go to training, various training classes; you have to go shopping, variousClothes; you have to socialize, it has kids socializing and English corner; and there is Party.You send the children in for 2600 yuan a year.  It is now open for more than two months, and is full every weekend, and many tour groups from other places bring groups, so it meets a very precise positioning.Just looking for children, but also realized a completely labelled and scale-effect scene for this business.Like Japan, there is a person who specializes in the elderly. The elderly exercise in it and solve various lonely problems. It is also oriented to this particular person and realizes a full range of services for them.I think this model may kill a way.  Beyond that, if you don’t see a great opportunity, then it is a risk.It is this business model that has no value in itself, no one pays for it, and ultimately makes no money.Or even if some people make money for a while, a lot of people rush in.So we see that under the BAT empire, and now can OK, are to form one after another is accurate or precise positioning of the closed loop: smart investors Source: Snowball

ZTE (000063) Annual Report Comments: First Quarterly Report Exceeds Expectations, Prepares for 5G

ZTE (000063) Annual Report Comments: First Quarterly Report Exceeds Expectations, Prepares for 5G

Ready for 5G, ZTE Sailing will launch the 2018 annual report and 2019 first quarter report on the evening of March 27. Among them, the first quarter of 2019 is expected to achieve net profit attributable to mothers 8?
1 billion, exceeding market expectations.

We believe that the expansion of operator capital expenditures in 2019 will drive the industry back on the growth track. As one of the world’s four largest equipment vendors, the company is committed to benefiting from the improvement of the industry’s business climate and 5G pre-commercialization.

We 北京桑拿 believe that the 4G boom in 1919 and the integration of the company’s consumer business are still in the recovery stage. Based on this, we expect the company’s 19?
The 21-year EPS is 1.

10/1.

40/1.

94 yuan (19?
20-year earnings per share).

08/1.

41 yuan), comparable company’s 19-year PE valuation average value 33x, considering the company’s industry leader ranking, given a 19-year PE reasonable variable interval of 31?

35x, corresponding to a target price of 34.

1?38.

5 yuan, re-buy rating.

  The 18-year performance came to an end. The first-quarter report in 19 was higher than expected in 2018, which was at the end of the 4G construction cycle, and the operator ‘s capital expenditure expanded by 6.

33%.

In this context, the company gradually realized revenue of 85.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 21 each year.

41%.

In terms of net profit, the company achieved net profit attributable to its mother for -69 years.

800 million, a year-on-year decrease of 252.

88%.

Performance changes mainly include a $ 1 billion budget, operating losses and estimated accrual losses.

At the same time, the company announced the forecast of the first quarter of 19 years.
1 billion, and an increase of 114.

79%?
122.

19%, exceeding market expectations.

  In 19 years, the communications industry ushered in an inflection point, 4G boom verification, and 5G commercial warm-up. On Wednesday, the major operators released their capital expenditure plans for 2019. Is it expected that the maximum capital expansion will be 2945?
303.1 billion, a capital expansion range of 2 in 2018 alone.

6%?
5.

6%, the industry inflection point was reset.

In terms of capital expenditure structure, the scale development and construction of China Unicom’s 4G wireless base stations has driven a high level of investment in the wireless side.

08%.

In addition, in terms of 5G investment, the annual scale of 5G investment of the three major operators is expected to be 236?
34.2 billion.

2019 will be a key year before the average 5G commercialization. Bidding plans around the construction of 5G trial commercial networks will be launched one after another to preheat 5G commercialization.
  Grasp the improvement of the 4G boom and embrace the 5G commercial Dawning Company as the top two wireless main equipment supplier for internal distribution, aiming to directly benefit from the improvement of the domestic 4G wireless boom.

In addition, in terms of 5G, in December 2018, OVUM released an inquiry report that in the six major 5G product series such as massive MIMO, serialized base stations, microwaves, bearers, central networks, and terminals, there are strictly only global equipment vendorsZTE can provide a complete 5G end-to-end processing solution and has the scale advantage of a complete product series. ZTE is one of them.

In 2019, the company’s 5G products and experimental research and development continued to make breakthroughs, showing its industry leadership.

We believe that 5G is the industry’s deterministic development potential, and ZTE’s leading 5G layout is expected to benefit from the industry’s growth potential.

  Investment suggestion We believe that the 4G boom in 1919 has strengthened and the restructuring of the company’s consumer business is still in the recovery stage. Based on this, we expect the company’s 19?
The 21-year EPS is 1.

10/1.

40/1.

94 yuan, comparable company’s 19-year PE estimated average value of 33x, considering the company’s industry leader ranking, given a 19-year PE reasonable estimation interval is 31?
35x, corresponding 北京夜生活 to a target price of 34.

1?38.

5 yuan, re-buy rating.
  Risk warning: 5G commercial use is less than expected; trade friction between China and the US has intensified.

East China Pharmaceutical (000963): Main business meets expected R & D supplement

East China Pharmaceutical (000963): Main business meets expected R & D supplement

1-3Q2019 results are in line with expectations. East China Pharmaceutical announced 1-3Q2019 results: operating income of 276.

30,000 yuan, an increase of 19 in ten years.

1%; net profit attributable to parent company22.

10,000 yuan, an annual increase of 22.

3%, corresponding to profit 1.

26 yuan.

Performance is in line with our expectations.

Development trends Industrial growth remains strong.

In the first three quarters of 2019, China-US East China revenue was 83.

9 trillion, an increase of 30 in ten years.

0%, net profit 18.

500 million, an increase of 27 in ten years.

0%, the net profit of the subsidiary accounted for 83% of the total net profit of the parent.

7%.

In the first three quarters of 2019, we expect Bailing capsule revenue to increase by 16% annually; acarbose revenue will increase by 32% annually.

Pioglitazone metformin continued to grow by 120%, which was replaced by the 2019 National New Medical Insurance Directory.

Pyridinaldehyde bufen grows 100% annually.

Revenue from transplantation products grows 30% annually, and revenue from digestion products grows 20% annually.

The company announced in October that it would abandon its acquisition of Zoli Pharmaceuticals.

Medical Beauty continues to explore new markets.

In the first three quarters of 2019, the pharmaceutical business, medical beauty and other businesses totaled 192 revenues.

4 ‰, an increase of 14 in ten years.

9%.

In the first three quarters of the pharmaceutical business, revenue increased by 15% each year, and profits increased by 20% each year.

In the first three quarters of 2019, Sinclair has completed listing registrations in five countries and regions. The key product Ellansé (injectable long-acting microspheres) has completed clinical trials in China. It has strategically cooperated with the American R2 dermatology company and has begun to launch its original innovation.Related clinical research work of F1 frozen freckle medical device F1 in China.

R & D funding increases.

In the first three quarters of 2019, R & D expenses7.

10,000 yuan, an increase of 52 in ten years.

8%.

We expect R & D spending in 2019 to exceed $ 1 billion, with an annual growth of 40 +%.

Oncology line: Mevatinib is in clinical phase II, and we expect to start clinical phase III in the second 深圳SPA会所 half of 2019.

Letrozole tablets were submitted for market application in mid-October.

Diabetes line: liraglutide has now started a national multi-center phase III clinical trial and is expected to apply for production in 2020.

TTP-273 has entered Phase I clinical trials, and Phase II clinical trials are expected in 2020, with production declared in 2021.

HD-118 has entered Phase I clinical trials and is expected to commence Phase II clinical trials in 2020.

We expect that caspofungin injection, anastrozole tablets, compound omeprazole sodium bicarbonate capsules, and sitagliptin dimethylbisphenol tablets are expected to receive marketing approval in the first quarter of next year.

Earnings forecast and forecast maintain 19/20 forecast EPS is RMB1.

92 yuan and 2.35 yuan, corresponding to an annual increase of 23.

6% and 22.

2%.

It currently corresponds to 2019/202013.

1x / 10.

7 times price-earnings ratio.

Maintain Outperform industry rating and target price of RMB38.

46 yuan, corresponding to 20.

0 times 2019 P / E ratio and 16.

4x 2020 price-earnings ratio, 53% more upside than before.

The price of risky core products fell more than expected, and products under development fell short of expectations.

Xinlun Technology (002341) 2018 Annual Report and 2019 First Quarterly Report Comments: Changzhou Project Advances Less Than Expected Performance Progress

Xinlun Technology (002341) 2018 Annual Report and 2019 First Quarterly Report Comments: Changzhou Project Advances Less Than Expected Performance Progress

Event: The company released its 2018 annual report and 2019 first quarter report, and achieved operating income of 32 in 2018.

140,000 yuan, an annual increase of 55.

67%, net profit attributable to mother 3.

10,000 yuan, an increase of 74 in ten years.

53%, net profit of non-attributed mothers2.

35 ppm, an increase of 91 in ten years.

02%.

In Q1 2019, it achieved operating income6.

3.3 billion US dollars, an annual increase of 24.

53%, net profit attributable to mothers was 9.79 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 80.

89%.

Guoyuan’s point of view: The share of electronic functional materials has increased, but due to the sluggish downstream demand, the product’s share in Apple has continued to increase in 2018 to achieve $ 400 million, which has more than doubled every 2017.It is expected that the corresponding expected profit will be reduced by 30 million yuan.

The company has written some domestic mobile phone BOM lists in the second half of 2018, and the company’s overseas customer material numbers continue to increase in the first quarter. It is expected that the gradual revenue of electronic functional materials in 2019 is expected to continue to grow.

The first phase of the production of aluminum plastic film and optical film affects profits. The second phase of the project has delayed production. The Changzhou aluminum plastic film project and optical film project have been put into operation in July and November 2018. Due to the need to re-verify and introduce domestic production lines,The process of maximizing production capacity and climbing requires a process. The depreciation and trial production costs in the initial stage after the project is put into production gradually lead to the company’s fourth quarter breakthrough and the first quarter of 19’s net profit significantly reduced, dragging down cumulative results.

The company reorganized the second phase of the production of two projects, aluminum plastic film and optical film, from the end of March to the end of September and the end of December, respectively. The significant contribution of the new project is expected to 2020.

Since aluminum-plastic film and optical film belong to the field with great growth potential, we are optimistic about the release of performance of domestic projects in the medium and long term.

New business is growing steadily, which is expected to increase the company’s profits. After Qianhong Electronics’ merger and acquisition is completed, the company integrates the die-cutting sector, and the electronic material component business develops steadily. Qianhong’s 18-year net profit1.

5.6 billion yuan to complete performance commitments.

Revenue from Smart Molding Business for 18 years1.

2 ppm, an annual increase of about 30%. The basic construction of the PBO project has been completed, and mass 四川成都耍耍论坛 production will be gradually realized in 19 years.

The gradual formation of new business will enhance the company’s ability to resist risks, but it will also test the company’s management capabilities.

Investment suggestion and profit forecast The company’s Changzhou project has not been advanced as expected, and the expansion of subsequent projects in the short term may continue to drag the company’s performance release progress.

The company’s 18Q4 and 19Q1 results were significantly lower than expected, lowering the company’s profit forecast.

Expected operating income for 2019-2021 is 43.

4/55.

1/69.

2 trillion, the estimated net profit is 3.

9/5.

1/6.

5 trillion, lowered EPS to 0.

34 (-0.

22) / 0.

44 (-0.

33) / 0.

57 yuan / share, corresponding to PE of 29/22/17 times. Considering that often the project progress is less than expected, the company’s rating is downgraded to “overweight”.

Risks suggest that the downstream introduction of aluminum-plastic film and optical film is less than expected, and the capacity utilization of new production lines is less than expected.

Winter indoor air pollution to prevent leukemia

Winter indoor air pollution to prevent leukemia

With the advent of winter, the doors and windows are mostly closed indoors instead of offices or homes. Over time, the indoor air will become dirty, which will easily bring diseases to the body.

  With the increasingly serious environmental pollution, the relationship between environmental exposure and childhood leukemia has caused widespread concern.

Indoor air is one of the fastest and closest external environments that people come in contact with. About 70% of people?
90% of the time is spent indoors, and more than the exposure to indoor air pollution, especially children, the long-term indoor air quality is expected to become more and more important.

Leukemia accounts for the largest proportion of children’s tumors, with the highest mortality rate. Epidemiological studies of complications have shown that the incidence of leukemia is on the rise. Prevention and treatment of childhood leukemia are the focus and focus of leukemia research.

  The specific cause of childhood leukemia is now apparent.

Most are thought to be the result of a combination of factors (individual susceptibility and external environment).

Indoor air pollution may play a more important role in the development of childhood leukemia.

  1 Smoking control Smoking is a public health problem that needs to be solved urgently, and the harm caused by passive smoking is particularly serious.

A large number of studies have confirmed that smoking is the initial result of lung cancer. In addition to high blood pressure, it can cause many types of cancer.

According to the WHO report, there are 44 “definite carcinogens” in tobacco smoke.

Parental smoking increases the risk of developing leukemia by 50%, adversely affects the prognosis of acute myeloid leukemia (AML), and shortens survival.

Maternal heavy smoking (≥10 sticks / day) can increase the risk of AML in children, with the highest hazard ratio reachable2.

67.

  2 Benzene and other organic solvents Benzene is a slightly aromatic organic solvent that has a wide range of uses in industry.

The source of indoor benzene pollution is mainly volatile organic compounds released from air pollution into the interior and interior decoration materials.

Once the interior is renovated, they are always released into the indoor air from the decoration materials.

If the indoor population is over-exposed to typical polluted air, human health will be damaged to varying degrees.

Long-term exposure to low concentrations of benzene can lead to chronic benzene poisoning, aplastic anemia, myelodysplastic syndromes and even leukemia.

  Studies on the relationship between occupational benzene exposure and adult leukemia have obtained positive evidence. Workers exposed to benzene concentrations of 67 mg / m3 per year are 20 times more likely to develop AML than the general population. Benzene workers have a higher incidence of acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL)To other people.

There is still research on the relationship between adolescent and child leukemia and direct benzene exposure, but the increasing benzene concentration in indoor air may be one of the causes of childhood leukemia.

Studies by British scholars have found that children living within 100 meters of major traffic lanes or gas stations have higher concentrations of benzene and other hydrocarbons than children in other places, and the risk of leukemia in children is slightly higher than in other areas. AML, ALLCLL is significantly related to the number of cars owned by households, and benzene exposure in gasoline may be the reason.

Childhood leukemia is related to factories near the house, which are two major industrial atmospheric emissions-oil volatiles and smoke from boilers or internal combustion engines that increase their risk.

In some places with severe air pollution, there are many children with leukemia.

  The survey found that 90% of families with children with leukemia had been renovated within 6 months to 1 year, and most of them had used luxury stone and stylish decoration materials.

If mothers are exposed to solvents, paints, substitutes, and cosmetic agents before and during pregnancy, father’s exposure to cosmetic agents before marriage increases the risk of children developing ALL and has a time-effect relationship.

Children’s frequent exposure (more than 4 times / month) to organic solvents will increase the risk of all diseases, and found that the mother lived in a painted room one year before the child’s birth, and the child’s risk of ALL after birth was also increased, so children with ALLThe increased risk is associated with certain indoor activities and paint exposure in children’s homes after birth.

  3 Household chemicals Household chemicals refer to chemical products used in the daily and residential environment of the home.

Household chemicals are widely used, penetrating into people’s clothing, food, housing, and travel, and covering all aspects of life. Therefore, household chemical reagents have scattered uses, large demand, and a wide range of coverage (including multiple ages)Paragraph) and long exposure time.

Various household chemicals can enter the human body through different ways and cause harm to health due to their different purposes, methods and scopes.

Children’s exposure to household chemicals varies greatly depending on the region and the home environment in which pesticides and hair dyes are closely related to childhood leukemia.

  Multiple studies have shown that pesticides are linked to leukemia.

Occupational or home exposure to pesticides is highly correlated with leukemia, especially childhood AML.

Children whose fathers have a history of exposure have increased susceptibility, and children are more at risk of direct exposure to pesticides than adults.

The more types of pesticides used in the home, the higher the frequency and the likelihood of suffering from ALL.

Why does the old man like to think of the time?

Why does the old man like to “think of the time”?

“Little grandson, grandpa was so prestigious that no one in the village was not afraid of me.
Why?
Because I have great strength!
“Grandpa, you’ve said it dozens of times, and I can remember it!”
“Little grandson covered his ears and strongly” protested. ”
  Some elderly people like to talk about their youth when they are young. They often describe their successful experiences and painful experiences in the form of “elders” in order to educate future generations.
They also like to “rely on the old and sell the old” in front of others, show off their past glorious experiences and deeds, and seek a kind of psychological satisfaction.
Even among their peers, they like to remember the past, and in similar experiences, everyone will resonate with each other.
This phenomenon of overremembering the past, pulling the individual’s spiritual life from reality back to the past, is a kind of psychological “rumination”, which is called “returning psychology” in psychology.
  Return psychology is a kind of bad psychology, which often makes the elderly fall into a negative state of mind.
Elderly people often compare what is going on now with what happened in the past, and feel lonely.
The “old yellow calendar” is also commonly used to educate children and cannot convince them.
They always feel like the years are flowing and the past is flowing.
  Returning to the mind is a kind of negative psychology. If the old man lives in nostalgia for the past, and even sighs sadness, it will inevitably increase the sense of loneliness and loneliness of the old man, and then produce depression.
This negative mental state will increase the burden on the brain and easily cause mental fatigue. It may also cause brain function or nervous system disorders, anxiety, depression, and inferiority emotions, which will cause people to lose confidence and courage in later life.
This state of mind and body is very susceptible to various diseases.
  Elderly people should remember the past in a positive way, and at the same time cherish the precious time of old age, engage in useful activities and appropriate family or social labor, exercise, cultivate sentiment, and live a happy old age.

Three tips for tacit understanding of newlyweds

Three tips for tacit understanding of newlyweds

Marriage makes two people have to get close to each other, eat and sleep together, and go in and out together . and tacit understanding is a look and a gesture, not even a certain mind, which can make each other understand and resonate .… One, aim your humor at yourself. The less you are afraid of revealing the clumsy side in front of the other party, the more relaxed you are in front of the other party, the better the tacit agreement between the two parties will be.

When exercising the ability of both sides to withstand jokes, remember to point your humor at yourself.

At the wedding stage, the unpleasant experience is likely to be caused by an inadvertent joke, such as making fun of the other’s hot hair like an electric shocked poodle, or making fun of the other’s huge figure like a hippo.

  This is because, at this stage, the two sides have not yet become familiar with “seeing jokes as intimate”, and making fun of each other is more “high-level” flirting than sweet talk; otherwise, the person who provoked the joke did not first”Spearhead” aimed at himself.

Experts believe that each couple has a strong potential for humor, and the party with a stronger humorous ability should assume the obligation to mobilize each other’s humorous energy, and this “demonstration” can begin with self-deprecation.

  Song Yang, 28, was particularly upset that her husband had called her “flower butterfly” (meaning she always splashed a lot of glitter when she went to a bar or party), but she was relieved when he claimed to be “I am a chimpanzee”.

“At the end of the summer, he swam in the open-air swimming pool for at least 30,000 meters. He was so dark that when I made fun of him that he was even darker than the orangutan, every time he texted me, his signature was like an orangutan cartoon.

  This incident made Song Yang review his “allergic” reaction to the three words “flower butterfly”: “I can call him like this, not to make me change, but to make it easier for us to get along.
Song Yang also gradually learned to use self-deprecating to end the dispute between the two sides.

有时两个人发生了矛盾,宋扬想主动结束持续了一天的冷战,她就会在冰箱上粘一张纸条:“猩猩:你应该原谅蝴蝶了,你知道蝴蝶是著名的‘没头脑’,No matter how clever a butterfly is, its brain capacity will never exceed zero.

01 constant.

“I believe no one can hold his face in such a note.

Self-deprecation, seemingly self-deprecating, is actually the smartest way to end the dispute. In fact, it also avoids the emotional fluctuations caused by daily disputes. It is an unexpected trick to promote close relationships.

  Second, don’t pay too much attention to his past. If you are not his first love, you must be full of inexpressible curiosity about his ex-girlfriend or ex-wife. This weird feeling comes from jealousy.

And if he is your first lover, this jealousy will replace the strong imbalance.

However, pursuing his past with a slap in the air will not help build mutual trust and intimacy.

Yes, you want to know, how did he meet his ex-girlfriend?

What did his parents say about his ex-girlfriend?

What was the real reason for their breakup?

  Whether it’s a lie or the truth, what good will it do for you?

Force him to explain his past love history. If his answer is light and vague, you say he is “slick”; if he confesses the truth of the details one by one, your jealousy will be stronger.

For his ex-girlfriend, do you want him to forget as soon as possible, or do you want him to indulge in memories again and again?

So, don’t bother yourself, just think that his past has been burned by a fire.

Qiu Meiling, 31, said, “I’m a winner. Why ask the losers where they fled?

“Xin Yan Shi Yan!

  After enjoying silent sex and creating an “action code” that only you would like to move into your new home, Zhou Miao instead refuses to her friends that the intimacy and tacit understanding between her and her husband are declining.

  It turned out that one year ago they were still living with Zhou Miao’s parents.

In the case of “the wall has ears”, the two enjoyed a kind of almost silent sex, and created a lot of seemingly ordinary sexual secrets. Parents couldn’t understand, but they understood each other.

For example, Zhou Miao is a fruit and vegetable juice enthusiast. The “juicing task” is usually undertaken by her husband.

One hour after dinner, he would come and ask, “I’m going to squeeze fresh orange juice. Would you like a glass.

“Fresh orange juice” is his signal. If Zhou Miao wants to go online or watch a video alone, she said, “Stop fresh orange juice today, squeeze a glass of carrot and tomato juice for me.”

“Sometimes I go out to eat. When the waiter laughs and asks: Mr. Miss wants red wine or fresh orange juice, the two of them will laugh heartily, and the husband will rush to say,” Come on a glass of fresh orange juice.of.
Now remember, the silent film era of “fresh orange juice” is also fascinating.

In the vertical with ears in the partition wall, silent sex relies on the tacit understanding of the soul to bring the two parties to a state of fun and indulgence.

Zhou Miao had a sudden inspiration and whispered, “Oh, we have sex in the museum like a thief.

“Yes, there are” alarm bells “and” infrared protection nets “all around the place. The joy of this adventure makes the intimacy become a feeling of” coming together in one boat “.

Apparently, the empty new home has reduced the motivation for sex between the two sides. Zhou Miao began to warmly invite both parents to stay for a while, and was also keen to stay with friends from afar.

She will buy a large basket of oranges in advance and ask everyone: “Are you interested in a glass of freshly squeezed orange juice?”But she only needs to watch one’s reaction.

  Third, find a platform to get along with alone. Gossip. Don’t expect that after seven years of marriage, you will continue to pour out your love with sweet words.

Gossip is often more suitable for this stage, which is about love and family, and coincides with various family planning assumptions.

  At the time of changing her new home, 32-year-old Guo Jin chose an apartment with a terrace on the top floor. She made a fir sun house on the terrace and put rattan and canvas deck chairs.

The wooden house is also where they dry their clothes. It has wooden bookshelves, potted plants, and a single-door refrigerator that has been eliminated from the home.

Mr. Guo’s husband often finds champagne and fresh matcha cakes in the refrigerator. Once, he also found a large box of ice cream inside.

These reserves are all provided by Guo Rong for “gossip.”

On the weekend, after the child and babysitter were asleep, the two climbed onto the terrace to drink champagne, lay down each other, and talked leisurely.

The topic is nothing more than what plants should be replaced in the courtyard, which kind of water-saving sprinkler is more cost-effective; the ridiculous thing happened at the last class reunion; the joke in the office; the seventh method of P. vannamei; and, somePersonal whimsy, for example, Guo Guang wants to paint on the original wooden chair at home, and turns them into “flower chairs” and “fruit chairs”, but worried that her parents would think that she was going crazy, “Last timeThey heard that I went to buy four bizarre expensive rosewood chairs and already thought that I was going crazy; this time I would draw pictures again, wouldn’t I go crazy again?

As a result, Guo Rong quickly got the support of his husband. His reason was: “Isn’t it just four chairs?”

How to pass a limited life without doing unhelpful things?

“Patios and fir huts eventually became the place where the couple reached a lot of trivialities.

  Marriage life inevitably has its homely trivial side, and one of the sources that interfere with the sense of tacit understanding is to replace the crumbs with endless romance and avoid trivialism. This approach is ostrich-like. Trivialism is everywhereRather gossiping and experience the subtle fun behind trivialities.

Women’s Invincible Tamer Dafa

Women’s Invincible Tamer Dafa

To be honest, sitting serious with men to discuss serious matters. In addition to avoiding fear, the other party may be embarrassed, slamming the TV remote control, pretending to be dumb, and even hesitating to perform a “normal” performance that is about to be congested.

This is not an exaggeration. To investigate the reasons, it is not that the matter of “telling the truth” is fundamental; if it is not handled properly, life is also vulnerable.

For example, when it is crucial to burn a butt, a man will automatically avoid this “high voltage, please don’t touch it!”

“The storm.

  But how can you make a man say nothing to you?

Although this is not as simple as you think, when you try it a lot and still take a breath to continue the long-term war, try the following strategies, saying that there is not necessarily a chance to turn things around and turn defeat into victory!

  Strategy one: keep calm and calm, don’t go straight to the majority of women trying to affect each other with righteousness, but never thought it was counterproductive afterwards.

Don’t believe it?

Are you used to popping out from the start: “We really need to talk!
!!

“Can I ask you something?”

“And so on?

Believe me, when he hears this, the man is hysterical, and the worst he can think of will all come to mind: Do you want to break up?

Or you accidentally got pregnant!

Any whimsical idea, he has a way to imagine it in a short period of time, his virtue, how can he patiently listen to your utterly lost thoughts.

  Therefore, if you really need to find him, you might as well use the “roundabout” personality skills to make him treat you as a buddy.

At least, while he was scared and scared, you wouldn’t be frightened because you knew what medicine he was selling in the gourd.

  Then, let the two people share the happy experience as a warm field, and then “take advantage of it” to intentionally or unintentionally bring out the “why recent life is not as usual” tone to further explore.

Of course, being aggressive can only make the atmosphere more embarrassing, and it can bring the core of the problem gradually.

  Strategy 2: Be verbal, every word that comes out is the key. Do n’t ask for yourself. Any truth that touches the inner world is a little careless. Men do n’t lose their books.

Especially in the communication process, it is best to avoid using any sharp words, such as “It’s over between us”, “What do you want?”, “It’s sooner or later”, “I’ve had enough” and so on.
Don’t doubt that I didn’t know you before. After you close your mouth, please open your eyes and look carefully to see if this man has started to flex his muscles in addition to his blush and thick neck, ready to ignite the flames of war.

  On the contrary, as opposed to men, it is better to take a turn and change the questioning skills.

  For example, ask him “What do you think?

It ‘s better to ask “What do you think?”

If you do this, you may still get the voice out of the string; at this moment, the man is like a prey caught by hand, step by step towards the “trap” you laid.

Having said that, it was also his willingness, didn’t he?

  Strategy 3: Do n’t stare wide, staring at someone like a polygraph, another woman ‘s common problem is that it ‘s so difficult for a man to be honest with you, your two watery black eyes,They stared at each other’s pupils like cats and mice.

Honestly, men are not used to it, and it is even worse.

Because in the concept of a man, look straight into his eyes, only the following situations: no one wants to provoke, or the great mother, otherwise only lawyers dare to do so.

Of course, instinctual defense can only be solved by resorting to force.

  In fact, it is a good way to ask a man to tell you the truth without any imagination. If you find any opportunity, use the atmosphere of boudoir fun.

With less hostility to each other, intimate skin lovers are better able to lift their hearts off, and men are also more open-minded and talk openly.

Especially when a woman clings to a thick chest and the superiority of a big man’s psychological trouble, you must be the best person he is anxious to care for.

Such a good time and place, how can he care about you!

Usually, when he temporarily loses his “self-defense” instinct, he actually announces the moment of “care for you”.

Zero deposit, pick up, walk out, health

Zero deposit, pick up, walk out, health

When it comes to fitness, many people immediately think of morning exercises in the park, dancing, Tai Chi, doing aerobics, going to the gym, robes thinking of swimming, playing basketball, running, etc. These are of course good fitness methods, as long as there are conditionsIf you have time, you can take whatever you want.

In fact, walking is also a fitness method, but we pay special attention to it again.

  It is the most reasonable and economical. It can be said that it is a zero deposit for health. At present, many people in the city go out by special cars, taxis, buses. If you are afraid that you will take one more step, if the pace of life is not too tight,Walking is really good for us.

Roughly speaking, for fitness, walking has at least three major benefits.

  From a medical point of view, taking advantage of your stride, you will gain strength and health.

A famous doctor in the Qing Dynasty, Cao Tingdong, said in Lao Lao Heng Yan: “If you sit for a long time, you will have a stagnation of the veins, and when you walk calmly, you will be physically fit and vigorous.

“It’s true that walking can achieve this effect, especially if you stick to it often, for years.

From a psychological perspective, walking outdoors can help you eliminate all kinds of troubles.

An experimental report by American psychologist Sarah Snowras pointed out that someone can get uplifted with just a few strides.

This is because the natural instinct of movement, which is supposed to have the seventh sense of human beings that has been lost in the life of rehabilitation, is re-incorporated into life, so it is full of vitality and vitality from the body to the spirit.
At the same time, when you are upset, you can exercise immediately, you can transfer the excitatory focus of the brain, so that the excitatory center of the brain is transferred from the left brain to the motor area of the cerebral cortex, the right hemisphere that grasps the spatial direction, and the cerebellum implanted in the body’s balance function.The main brain logical thinking, the left and right hemisphere of the calculation of gains and losses can be suppressed, so the feelings of worry and depression will be forgotten and relieved.

  What’s more important is that once the left brain is temporarily inhibited, the brain regions in the main movement, especially the right brain hemisphere, will no longer secrete happy hormones, and can secrete hormones that were originally lacking in the cerebral nervous system through the body.So refreshing.