Month: April 2020

This World Marriage (603369)： High growth certainty in the coming year, current value is undervalued

This World Marriage (603369): High growth certainty in the coming year, current value is undervalued

According to grassroots research feedback, the company’s current inventory level allows and the price is stable. It is expected that the Spring Festival will have a good performance.

In the context of the increase in the base in Nanjing and the adjustment of competing products, some investors threaten the sustainability of the company’s future growth. We believe that the adjustment of competing products will take time, the company’s channel comparative advantage is still in place, and Nanjing Guoyuan Consumption has been formed.The channel dividend is expected to continue to be released, and the company is well prepared for the future. One is to lay out higher-end V-series in advance, and the other is to focus on the blank market in the province. Nanjing is expected to be the main force for growth in the future.

We believe that the company has a strong accumulation of products, maintains a high profit margin for its products, continues to adhere to the group purchase model to promote consumer effects, rich internal teams and distributors, channels are circulating, the current potential energy dividend is just released, and the growth of the next year is high.

Maintaining EPS 1 for 19-20 years.

15 yuan, 1.

40 yuan, currently corresponding to only 22X for 20 years, the safety margin is high, given 28 X for 20 years, maintaining a target price of 40 yuan, maintaining the “strong recommendation-A” rating.

Complete the task ahead of time, the current inventory level is sufficient, the price is stable, and it is expected that the Spring Festival will have a good performance.

According to grassroots research feedback, the company has completed the 19-year task ahead of schedule, and the additional part of the advance payment has been placed in 20Q1.

The current overall inventory level is reasonable, 1-1.

In May, the stock price of Nanjing, a key market, was currently 250-255 on folio and 380-385 on quarto. The price rose steadily.

The company’s current Spring Festival policy has not yet been issued. It is expected that the policy will be on the 18-20 sunrise, and dealers will begin to make payments during the Spring Festival.

Manufacturers are currently doing two things: one is to let the dealers withdraw funds, and the other is to let the dealers clean up the warehouse and prepare for the Spring Festival.

The current channel inventory is low and the price is stable. It is expected that the Spring Festival will have a good performance.

The structure continued to upgrade, the national borders of main products maintained high growth, and V series sales exceeded expectations.

In 19 years, the national border continued to maintain high growth, and its share of total income increased from 65% in 18 to about 70% in 1919. Among them, the main product Folio / Sikaikai maintained a high growth rate of more than 50%.

In addition, the company’s V-series revenue in 19 years reached 300 million (sales caliber), exceeding the company’s initial expectations.

The company regards the V series as the key layout in the future. For the V 杭州桑拿 series, a high-end wine promotion department has been set up. V9 is a high-end image, V3 and V6 are sales, and higher price bands are set in advance.Reached about 20%.

From defense to offense, the channel’s potential energy is continuously released, and the high increase continues.

The company has maintained a high growth rate for 17 years. This year, in the context of the increase in the market base of the Nanjing market, the profit of the channel has declined slightly, and the channel adjustment of competing products has caused investors to worry about the sustainability of the company ‘s future growth.The company still expects to maintain high growth: 1) Although the channel profit in the Nanjing market has slightly decreased compared to the previous period, the channel profit is still significantly higher than that of the 天津夜网 competing products, and the company has taken relevant measures in 19Q3 to reduce the amount of expenses and actively control the growth.
The chairman is worried about the obstacles of consciousness and requires quality to be faster than speed. He will not rush through the channels to press the goods to increase growth, but to develop healthily and benignly while ensuring channel profits.

It will take time to adjust the competition channel in the province. The company’s comparative advantage is still in place. At present, Nanjing’s national consumption transformation has been formed, the channel is in a positive cycle, and the dividends continue to be released. 2) Looking ahead, the Nanjing market will experience high growth in recent years.Under the background of increasing bases, it is reasonable to subdivide the growth rate in the future. The company has prepared in advance: first, on the product, the higher-end V series is deployed in advance to supplement national border products; second, regionally,It will focus on other blank markets in the province, including potential markets in southern Jiangsu, central Jiangsu, and Xuzhou. It will continue to expand the number of dealers, increase resource input and channel construction. The growth rate in 19 years has increased significantly, and Nanjing is expected to become the main growth force in the future.

Investment suggestion: The growth rate for the coming year is high, the current value is underestimated, and the “strongly recommended-A” rating is re-determined.

We believe that the company has accumulated a lot of money, maintained a high profit margin for its products, continued to adhere to the group purchase model to promote consumer effects, and the internal team and dealers have made rich returns.

It will take time to adjust the competitive product channels. The company’s comparative advantage is still in place. The current potential energy dividend is being released at the right time, and the growth in the coming year is highly certain.

Maintaining EPS 1 for 19-20 years.

15 yuan, 1.

40 yuan, currently corresponding to only 22X for 20 years, the safety margin is high, given 28 X for 20 years, maintaining a target price of 40 yuan, maintaining the “strong recommendation-A” rating.

Risk warning: demand falls, competition in the province increases, and expansion outside the province is less than expected.

AVIC Sunda (000043) Commentary on Major Issues： Leading State-owned Enterprise Property Management May Start

AVIC Sunda (000043) Commentary on Major Issues: Leading State-owned Enterprise Property Management May Start

Core View AVIC Suntec announced that the company intends to purchase investment properties by issuing shares.

Valuation of part of the property management of New AVIC Sunda.

We noticed that if the acquisition of China Merchants Property is completed successfully, the new AVIC Sunda Property Management segment (not the entire company) will have a pro forma revenue of 66 in 2018.

300 million, net profit reached 3.

100 million, net profit margin 4.

65%.

The level of corporate net profit margin is relatively high among listed property management companies.

We believe that the estimation of property management companies can give priority to market value / area under management and PS indicators.

Currently, the average PS for comparable property companies is 3.

60, the market value / unit in the tube area is 0.

91.

Considering that the company’s profitability allows after all, we give it below the industry average of 2.

5 times PS, giving industry average of 0.

91 times the market value / million square meters in the tube area, taking the average, we believe that the company’s property management part is reasonable market value of 140.

900 million.

Valuation of AVIC Sunda’s other businesses.

The company also has real estate development business and investment real estate.

Of course, the company’s platform budget also has net debt, and China Merchants Property also has disadvantages.

The company’s real estate business is mainly reflected in inventory and investment real estate (fair value valuation), with a total of 86 at the end of the first quarter of 2019.

400000000.

At the same time, the company’s net interest resistance is 26.

200000000.

In addition, China Merchants Property has a debt scale of 13.

0 million yuan (conservative estimate, replacing the total debt with the total debt of China Merchants Property).

Based on this calculation, the net debt value of the company’s other business segments is approximately 47.

0 million.

Evaluation of the value of New China Aviation Sunda.

As the transaction price of the acquisition was disclosed in this announcement, we are temporarily unable to obtain the target price of AVIC Sunda and cannot give the company a rating.

We have summarized the value of the property management sector and other business assessments, and concluded that the reasonable value of Xin AVIC Sunda is 187.

90,000 yuan (we redistribute, this is not the corresponding fair market value of the current share capital, it is the pro forma fair market value after the issue, the share capital is not yet determined).

If considering the uncertainty of the event approval, a 20% discount is given, the current probable reasonable value is 150.

300 million.

Risk reminder: The nature of the company’s acquisition of investment is yet to be approved by the regulatory authority, and there is controversy and uncertainty.

The formation of the leading value of the central enterprises, the company’s medium and long-term value is more worth looking forward to.

Property management companies operate independently of real estate development companies, and set up core competitiveness of property management companies.

Only with a few trivial roles like the cost center of a real estate company, can a property management company formulate a more independent business strategy, carry out more effective incentives, and make great progress in the blue ocean of the service industry of property management.

We believe that the strong combination of China Merchants Property and AVIC is likely to build a central government property management growth leader in the medium and long term, and cultivate a 杭州夜网论坛 comprehensive service system for urban development and industrial upgrading with obvious advantages.

This strong alliance is not the end, but the beginning.In the Hong Kong stock market, large-scale property management companies have rapidly expanded the role of developer vassals after listing, taking over the third party ‘s continued increase in the area under management, and the value-added service income and profit share have continued to rise, creating a cumulative income for investors and also for ownersCustomers and even society as a whole create value for quality services.

Wantong Real Estate (600246)： Sitting on the core asset value highlights steady progress

Wantong Real Estate (600246): Sitting on the core asset value highlights steady progress

Established real estate companies, well-known brands, residential business and commercial diversification go hand in hand. Vantone Real Estate is one of the leading brand companies in China’s real estate industry, and it is a real estate company with equal emphasis on development and operation.

1) In terms of real estate development business, the company focuses on the Beijing-Tianjin area and has a complete product line. With its excellent quality and services, it already has a high brand awareness in the Beijing-Tianjin area.

2) In terms of commercial real estate, the company has successfully created the commercial property brand of “Wantong Center”. At present, commercial properties in Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai have matured and become local landmark buildings.

In the future, through a mature and outstanding commercial complex real estate operation management team, the effective scale of assets will be achieved, and the operating performance will be steadily improved.

Development business: Focus on the first-tier and second-tier cities. The company’s project layout with the ability to withstand market risks has now formed a superior land storage pattern with Beijing, Huanjing as the center, and three major second-tier cities as the fulcrum.

Taking into account: 1) Beijing and second-tier cities have gradually entered the recovery phase after two consecutive years of suppression; 2) the marginal effect of the policy of first-tier and second-tier cities has gradually weakened; 3) some first-tier and second-tier cities have restricted purchases since the second half of the year, and sales have been limitedThe improvement of loosening is expected to increase the marginal easing of policies in the future. We believe that the company’s ability to resist market risks has deteriorated by virtue of its excellent project quality and the advantages of its first- and second-line layout.

Commercial sector: Sitting on core assets, the rents are steadily increasing, and the value is significantly underestimated. The company began to increase the holding of commercial properties in 2010. The commercial resources held are located in the core area of the city, and scarce resources show value.

In terms of rent, total rental income in the first 成都桑拿网 three quarters of 20191.

800 million US dollars (ten years + 10%), rent is 92 yuan / square meter / month (annual + 24%), rental income growth is mainly due to the increase in rental rates and rental increases.

At the same time, considering that the commercial properties held by the company are strategically located and have great potential for future appreciation, the current average price of investment real estate is measured using the cost method, assuming revaluation based on the sales prices of similar properties in the surrounding areas, until the end of the third quarter of 19The fair value of real estate reached 103 trillion, an increase of 63 trillion over the cost measurement method.

Financial analysis: The financial structure is excellent, the debt ratio is at the lowest level in the industry, and it has a higher safety margin. 1) The total asset size has been reduced under reduced leverage, and the sales carry-over has promoted the continuous growth of net assets.It has declined for three consecutive years; the scale of net assets has increased for four consecutive years since 2015.

2) The carry-over of high-priced projects promotes continuous improvement in profit margin levels: the company ‘s gross profit margin and net profit margin in the first three quarters of 2019 increased by 20pct and 25pct respectively compared to 2018, and the profit margin has entered a higher level since 2017, mainly due to the company’s project acquisition timeEarlier, land prices may overlap due to the rapid rise in house prices from 2016.

3) The debt structure is excellent, and the debt ratio continues to improve: At the end of the third quarter of 2019, the company’s asset-liability ratio after replacing prepayments was 4pct higher than in 2018, which has continued to decline since the high point in 2015; interest-bearing liabilities accounted for 20% of total asset%, The lowest level in history.

4) Sufficient monetary funds, compensation for debt repayment pressure, and budget financing advantages: At the end of the third quarter of 2019, the company had US $ 2.3 billion in monetary funds in hand, an increase of + 21%; among interest-bearing debt, long-term bank loans accounted for 92%, and short cash debt ratiosAs high as 12 times, there is no pressure on debt service in the short term; the company’s comprehensive financing cost in 2018 was only 6.

21%, the highest level in the industry, adjusting the goals and foundation for the company’s future strategy.

Investment suggestion: Wantong Real Estate is one of the leading brands in China’s real estate industry. In terms of development business, high-quality soil storage in Beijing and second-tier cities is expected to accelerate the release of performance under the expectation of loosening policy margins in the future.

In terms of commercial real estate, the company’s self-owned commercial properties are strategically located, benefiting from increased occupancy rates and rental growth, as well as the saleability of commercial real estate value-added, with huge growth potential.

Estimated net profit for 2019/20/215.

3/6.

5/8.

300 million, an increase of 61.

8% / 22.

9% / 27.

7%, currently expected to correspond to an estimated 17x / 14x / 11x in 2019/20/21, with a “Buy” rating assigned for the first time.

Risk warning: The real estate industry forecast exceeds expectations, and the company’s real estate project settlement exceeds expectations.

Zhongxin Tourism (002707)： Q2’s high-baseline performance under pressure retail business continued to develop

Zhongxin Tourism (002707): Q2’s high-baseline performance under pressure retail business continued to develop

Event: The company released its 2019 Interim Report and achieved revenue of 57 in 19H1.

4.6 billion (-1.

16%), net profit attributable to mother 1.

100 million (-20.

37%), deducting non-net profit 1.

09 thousand yuan (-6.

07%).

Investment points: The performance in the first half of the year declined slightly, and Q2 was more significant in at least half a year.

The company achieved 57 in 19H1.

4.6 billion (-1.

16%), net profit attributable to mother 1.

100 million (-20.

37%), the decline in net profit attributable to mothers and non-recurring gains and losses in the first half of 2018 included the disposal of Club Med equity to obtain investment income of over 20 million, deducting non-net profit1.

09 thousand yuan (-6.

07%).

2Q19 achieved revenue of 32.

8.9 billion (-1.

33%). The slight increase in revenue from Q1 was related to the high base in 18Q2 and the incomplete recovery of the Asian market.

4.5 billion (-37.

6%), deducting non-net profit of 0.

4.5 billion (-20.

02%), the decline in profit is expected to be related to the decrease in gross profit margin.

The Southeast Asian market has not yet fully recovered, and outbound tourism retail continues to develop.

Revenue from outbound travel business 51.

7.4 billion (-3.

1%). From the perspective of destinations, revenue growth in European destinations has increased by more than 10%. Among them, competition in Western Europe has expanded fiercely. Northern European, Southern European, and British market revenues have maintained rapid growth. Asian revenues have also fallen by more than 10%, mainly due to 19 years.In the first half of the year, the Southeast Asian market has not yet fully recovered; the American market, the Australian market has been affected by the Sino-US trade war and the growth of free travel, 杭州桑拿 and the revenue scale has declined; the Middle East market has benefited from the continued hotness of the “Belt and Road” and the rapid growth of Internet celebrity destination Dubai;In addition, the company has also developed products in countries along the “Belt and Road” in the three countries of the Caucasus and Kazakhstan.

From the perspective of type, the outbound tourism wholesale business income42.

3.3 billion (-4.

68%), gross profit margin 8.

52% (-0.

12 points), the Southwest market has added hot products, and the newly established subsidiary in South China is on track to cultivate the source market; the outbound tourism retail business income9.

4.1 billion (+4.

72%), gross margin of 16.

29% (-1.

04pct), as of the middle of 19 years, the number of direct and partner stores of the company increased to 543, an increase of 108 in the previous 18 years, 北京养生会所 except for the net partner stores in Jiangxi, Inner Mongolia, Hebei and other provinces.

Newly entered Hubei, Tianjin, Henan, Fujian and other provinces and cities.

Domestic tourism and other businesses performed well and continued to cultivate.

Revenue from domestic tourism and single product business1.6.2 billion (+52.

30%), of which domestic tourism increased by about 70%, mainly due to the gradual increase in the variety of domestic tourism products, third-party tourism platform resources.

In addition, integrated marketing business income3.

61 ppm (+ 10%) with a gross profit margin of 10.

35% (+1.

33pct), business capabilities continued to improve; product revenue in other industries was 2,193.

710,000 yuan (+176.

42%), of which the income of resettlement industry (the growth rate exceeds 600%) and currency exchange income (the growth rate exceeds 200%) have increased significantly.

Pressure pressure affects profit margins, and Q2’s single-quarter gross margin declined.

Gross profit margin in the first half of 19 was 10.

9% (+0.

27pct), net interest rate 2.

03% (-0.

66 points).

Selling expense ratio 6.

92% (+0.

32pct); overhead cost rate 1.

30% (+0.

07pct); financial expense ratio is 0.

39% (+0.

21pct), primarily due to the increase in loan interest rates and the decrease in exchange gains for the current period; the decline in profitability in the single quarter of 19Q2 was mainly due to the decline in gross profit margin (9.

14%, -0.

63pct).

In the first half of the year, operating cash flow increased by 149.

72%, mainly due to the increase in the company’s advance receipts and the decline in advance payments.

Profit forecast: Low base in the second half of the year, and the Southeast Asian market is expected to further recover. The growth pressure is expected to improve. Maintain the profit forecast. The company is expected to attribute net profit for the year 19-21.

09, 2.

44、2.

8.3 billion, a growth rate of 788.

4%, 16.

4%, 16.

3%, EPS is 0.

24, 0.

28, 0.

32 yuan, corresponding to PE is 22, 19, 16 times.

Risk warning: outbound tourism recovery is less than expected, fierce competition in the industry, vicious events at the destination and other risks.

Zhou Dasheng (002867) released a comment-Second shareholders’ pressure to reduce their holdings is getting less and less.

Zhou Dasheng (002867) released a comment-Second shareholders’ pressure to reduce their holdings is getting less and less.

After two shareholders of Northern Lights reduced their holdings, the shareholding ratio was 8 points. The pressure to reduce their holdings continued to decrease.

9547% of the company’s shares.

After this reduction, Northern Lights holds 8 shares.

0625%.

Northern Light holds the company’s initial public offering of shares and shares held before listing.

04%, since the announcement on May 4, 2018, the second shareholder, Northern Lights, has gradually reduced its shareholding in the company.

The company’s Valentine’s Day sales in 2020 will be affected, and the opening of the store in a quarter will suffer less. The consumption of gold jewelry during the entire Spring Festival, from New Year’s Day to the Spring Festival to the Lantern Festival, and even Valentine’s Day is a very good sales peak.

The franchisee directly faces the C-end customer. The franchisee must complete the purchase before the peak season sales, so the company’s response to the holiday sales data of the franchisee will be advanced in time. For example, the sales of the franchisee before the Spring Festival of 2020 are reflected in the company’s 2019年 年末四季度对加盟商的销售.

Most customers of gold and jewelry consumption during the Spring Festival peak season will also complete this purchase before the Spring Festival, so before New Year’s Day to the Spring Festival, the company franchisees should also complete most of the inventory sales.

At this stage, from Spring Festival to Valentine’s Day, the mall is basically stagnant. During this time, the pressure of franchisees will be greater.

Normal Chow Tai Sang will also plan to have some franchisees replenishment demand before Valentine’s Day. This year’s Valentine’s Day sales will be affected to some extent, but after the Spring Festival, gold jewelry consumption itself is also off-season. The biggest impact currently is the impact on Valentine’s Day consumption.。At the same time, the 南京桑拿网 company’s store opening time is generally concentrated before the arrival of the peak season, the period after the Spring Festival has a small impact.

Consumers are more precisely positioned, brand channels continue to expand, and the company ‘s brand influence continues to increase. The company focuses on brand building and channel expansion, which complement each other to further expand the company ‘s influence and appeal.

The short-term company continues to face pressure from the second shareholder to reduce its holdings, but considering that the reduction has been completed more than half, the pressure has been less and less.

The concentration of beneficiary industries in the medium and long term has increased, and the company’s opening of stores in the first 合肥夜网 half of 2020 may be slightly disrupted. Under the pressure of the industry, the company’s leading advantages are more significant, which will help improve the concentration of beneficiary industries.

The company continues to expand its product research and development capabilities, continuously enrich and improve its product line, meet the initial consumer demand in the market, and expand the concept of diamond consumption.

The company’s corresponding EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 2.

02/2.

40/2.

82 yuan, maintaining the “highly recommended” level.

Risk warning: low-end and high-end consumption, terminal growth faster than expected, impact of unexpected public events

Huida Sanitary Ware (603385)： The completion of the sale of the coking plant is expected to be a good fourth quarter

Huida Sanitary Ware (603385): The completion of the sale of the coking plant is expected to be a good fourth quarter

Key points of investment: Successfully sell coking plant, withdraw funds to increase net profit.

The company will hold a 40% stake in Dafeng Coking for RMB 4814.

390,000 yuan was sold to Donghua Iron and Steel. Overall, Donghua Iron and Steel Dafa Coking paid the company a dividend payable to the company3.

520,000 yuan in total, Donghua Iron and Steel will pay 400 million yuan to the company.

At the same time, the company preliminary estimates that the sale of 苏州夜网论坛 Dafeng Coking is expected to increase the company’s net profit in 2019 by about 0.

5.4 billion.

　　Successfully sold Dafeng Coking, focusing on its main business.

The company is a leader in conventional bathrooms. The successful sale of Dafeng Coking has helped the company focus on its main business and reduce management costs.

At the same time, Dafeng Coking is a coking coal chemical company. Due to the impact of the macroeconomic and industry cycles, the company’s performance after the successful sale of Dafeng Coking has reduced the risk of fluctuations in company performance.

　　Create a national bathroom brand.

The company’s R & D center was completed and put into use on December 20, and the intelligent strategy will be further expanded in the future. At the same time, the company will become the official sponsor of the National Women’s Volleyball Team on December 1. We believe that the company is starting to fully develop its R & D and brand image.Create a national bathroom brand.
　　Even without considering the sale of coking plants, the fourth quarter net profit growth rate is expected to turn upwards.

The company’s gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2019 was 32.

92% in the first three quarters of 2018 every year 28.

07% gross profit margin increased by 4.

85 averages.

But since there were zero in the first three quarters of 18 years.

The net investment income of 7 billion yuan was -0 in the first three quarters of 19 years.

02 ppm, so the increase in gross profit margin was not reflected in the net profit margin, which was 10 in the first three quarters of 2019.

32%, compared with a net margin of 10 in the first three quarters of 2018.

08% did not increase significantly.

However, starting from the fourth quarter of 2018, the net return on investment in a single quarter was only zero.

02 ppm, an expansion and tie compared with the first three quarters of 18, so the net profit margin in the fourth quarter of 18 alone was 5.

61%.

In our opinion, the company’s gross profit margin improved in the first three quarters, at -0.

In the case of a net income of 2.0 billion yuan, the net interest rate for the first three quarters was 10.

32%. Therefore, even without considering the proceeds from the sale of coking plants, the growth rate of net profit in the fourth quarter of 2019 is expected to increase.

　　Coupled with the benefit of the sale of Dafeng Coking, the company’s fourth-quarter performance improved even more beautifully.

If disclosed according to the company announcement, if the sale can increase the net profit in 2019 by about 0.

54 million, 130% of 4149 million net profit in the fourth quarter of 2018, so we expect the company’s net profit growth in the fourth quarter of 2019 will be more beautiful.

　　Earnings and estimates.

Considering the sale of Dafeng Coking, we expect the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 to be 0.

90, 0.

95, 1.

15 yuan / share, since 2019 includes a one-time sale of profits and losses, so using the 2020 data to evaluate, the comparable listed company’s median PE forecast for 2020 is 16.

4 times, giving the company 15-18 times forecast PE in 2020, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 14 in 2020.

25-17.

10 yuan / share, “previous market” rating.　　risk warning.

The intensification of trade frictions affects export risks, the risk of intensified exchange rate fluctuations, and the progress of entering the real estate centralized mining system is less than expected, and it brings the risk of price wars.

ZTE (000063) Annual Report Comments： First Quarterly Report Exceeds Expectations, Prepares for 5G

ZTE (000063) Annual Report Comments: First Quarterly Report Exceeds Expectations, Prepares for 5G

Ready for 5G, ZTE Sailing will launch the 2018 annual report and 2019 first quarter report on the evening of March 27. Among them, the first quarter of 2019 is expected to achieve net profit attributable to mothers 8?
1 billion, exceeding market expectations.

We believe that the expansion of operator capital expenditures in 2019 will drive the industry back on the growth track. As one of the world’s four largest equipment vendors, the company is committed to benefiting from the improvement of the industry’s business climate and 5G pre-commercialization.

We 北京桑拿 believe that the 4G boom in 1919 and the integration of the company’s consumer business are still in the recovery stage. Based on this, we expect the company’s 19?
The 21-year EPS is 1.

10/1.

40/1.

94 yuan (19?
20-year earnings per share).

08/1.

41 yuan), comparable company’s 19-year PE valuation average value 33x, considering the company’s industry leader ranking, given a 19-year PE reasonable variable interval of 31?

35x, corresponding to a target price of 34.

1?38.

5 yuan, re-buy rating.

　　The 18-year performance came to an end. The first-quarter report in 19 was higher than expected in 2018, which was at the end of the 4G construction cycle, and the operator ‘s capital expenditure expanded by 6.

33%.

In this context, the company gradually realized revenue of 85.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 21 each year.

41%.

In terms of net profit, the company achieved net profit attributable to its mother for -69 years.

800 million, a year-on-year decrease of 252.

88%.

Performance changes mainly include a $ 1 billion budget, operating losses and estimated accrual losses.

At the same time, the company announced the forecast of the first quarter of 19 years.
1 billion, and an increase of 114.

79%?
122.

19%, exceeding market expectations.

　　In 19 years, the communications industry ushered in an inflection point, 4G boom verification, and 5G commercial warm-up. On Wednesday, the major operators released their capital expenditure plans for 2019. Is it expected that the maximum capital expansion will be 2945?
303.1 billion, a capital expansion range of 2 in 2018 alone.

6%?
5.

6%, the industry inflection point was reset.

In terms of capital expenditure structure, the scale development and construction of China Unicom’s 4G wireless base stations has driven a high level of investment in the wireless side.

08%.

In addition, in terms of 5G investment, the annual scale of 5G investment of the three major operators is expected to be 236?
34.2 billion.

2019 will be a key year before the average 5G commercialization. Bidding plans around the construction of 5G trial commercial networks will be launched one after another to preheat 5G commercialization.
　　Grasp the improvement of the 4G boom and embrace the 5G commercial Dawning Company as the top two wireless main equipment supplier for internal distribution, aiming to directly benefit from the improvement of the domestic 4G wireless boom.

In addition, in terms of 5G, in December 2018, OVUM released an inquiry report that in the six major 5G product series such as massive MIMO, serialized base stations, microwaves, bearers, central networks, and terminals, there are strictly only global equipment vendorsZTE can provide a complete 5G end-to-end processing solution and has the scale advantage of a complete product series. ZTE is one of them.

In 2019, the company’s 5G products and experimental research and development continued to make breakthroughs, showing its industry leadership.

We believe that 5G is the industry’s deterministic development potential, and ZTE’s leading 5G layout is expected to benefit from the industry’s growth potential.

　　Investment suggestion We believe that the 4G boom in 1919 has strengthened and the restructuring of the company’s consumer business is still in the recovery stage. Based on this, we expect the company’s 19?
The 21-year EPS is 1.

10/1.

40/1.

94 yuan, comparable company’s 19-year PE estimated average value of 33x, considering the company’s industry leader ranking, given a 19-year PE reasonable estimation interval is 31?
35x, corresponding 北京夜生活 to a target price of 34.

1?38.

5 yuan, re-buy rating.
　　Risk warning: 5G commercial use is less than expected; trade friction between China and the US has intensified.

Ziguang (000938) Interim Review： Continued high R & D investment in ICT business to expand market structure

Ziguang (000938) Interim Review: Continued 返回码: 404 网站打不开?重查 high R & D investment in ICT business to expand market structure
Event: Recently, the company released the first half of 2019 report and achieved revenue of 228.74ppm, an increase of 1 per year.92%, realized net profit attributable to mother 8.4.7 billion, an annual increase of 15.51%, the net profit of non-returned mothers 5 was realized.USD 9.8 billion, an annual increase of 2.39%, in line with expectations.The products cover a wide range of fields, and the operator market is gradually opening up. It is expected that the performance in the second half of the year will continue in the first half. Investment highlights: Xinhua III’s revenue declined slightly, but its core business grew steadily: H3C revenue in the first half of 145.$ 5.2 billion, with an average of 4 per year.12%. Due to the increasing downward pressure on the economy and the company’s promotion of private label servers, revenue from agency HPE products declined; however, digital infrastructure and services for core business grew steadily with revenue of 115.$ 1.5 billion.05%; gross margin is 33.98% twice a year.43%, due to the increase in the proportion of private label server and storage revenue, will increase through high value-added services and overseas market expansion. R & D expansion to lead the market application with innovation: 2019H1 R & D investment18.2.2 billion, an increase of 15 every year.21%; continuous high R & D, technology integration and innovation, around the “4 + N” concept, covering AI network modules, WiFi 6 wireless products and 5G convergence solutions, etc. to achieve comprehensive 5G product coverage; currently, the company has comprehensively improved its productsThe intelligent application and services of the solution, and the in-depth implementation of multiple industry projects will fully benefit in the future. Focusing on 5G construction, the operator market pattern opens: 5G has entered a large-scale construction period. The company expanded the operator market in the first half of the year and launched a full range of 5G mobile backhaul bearer network products.Routers break through the operator market and achieve partial commercialization; WLAN has won the largest scale in winning bids for operators’ equipment collection projects and achieved a breakthrough in scale; SDN / NFV has in-depth cooperation with operators, etc.The company is committed to improving the operator’s product line, and its business restructuring features are prominent, with better performance in the second half of the year. Security and small base stations will become the new growth points: 1) The company takes the lead in proposing the concept of “active security”, integrates artificial intelligence, quickly builds a product system, releases a new generation of AI firewalls, and wins hardware firewall product projects with the largest share;To achieve technological breakthroughs, for the first time to release a 5G white-box indoor small base station to beat traditional equipment vendors, we believe this will become the company’s new performance growth point. Profit forecast and investment advice: It is estimated that the company will achieve net profit of 23 in 2019, 2020 and 2021.10 billion, 28.89 billion, 36.9.7 billion, the corresponding EPS is 1.13 yuan, 1.41 yuan, 1.81 yuan; corresponding to the current expected PE is 29 times, 23 times, 18 times; we maintain the company’s “Buy” rating. Risk factors: 5G construction fails to meet expectations, Sino-US trade frictions intensify, and the risk of goodwill impairment.

New Natural Gas (603393) 2018 Annual Report Comments： Asian and American Energy Consolidated Contribution Significantly Optimizes Upstream Business

New Natural Gas (603393) 2018 Annual Report Comments: Asian and American Energy Consolidated Contribution Significantly Optimizes Upstream Business

Event: New Natural Gas released its 2018 annual report.

In 2018, the company realized operating income16.

3 ‰, an increase of 60 in ten years.

6%; net profit attributable to 佛山桑拿网 mother 3.

30,000 yuan, an annual increase of 26.

9%; earnings per share 2.

09 yuan.

The company disclosed the dividend distribution plan, and distributed 10 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares and increased 4 shares.

Downstream business is steadily advancing: Benefiting from strong natural gas demand, the company’s Xinjiang regional natural gas sales volume in 20186.

5 billion cubic meters, an increase of 17 in ten years.

8%; gross profit of natural gas supply business increased by 13 in ten years.

6%.

Affected by factors such as upstream price increases, the company’s natural gas supply business gross margin in 2018 was 26.

5%, ten-year average 1.

4 units.

In addition, the company’s natural gas connection business has developed steadily, with user installations completed in 20183.

10,000 households, the gross profit of this business increased by 11 every year.

1%.

Layout of upstream business, Asia-American Energy and consolidated contribution to performance increase: In 2018, the company successfully acquired the coal-bed gas company Asia-American Energy (2688.

Hong Kong) 50.

5% equity, layout upstream business.

Finally, at the end of 2018, due to exercise substitution, the company held Asian American Energy 49.

93% equity.

Asian American Energy consolidated on August 31, 2018. We estimate that Asian American Energy’s 2018 consolidated performance was 0.

90,000 yuan, accounting for 25% of the company’s net profit attributable to the mother.

5%.

Affected by factors such as the consolidation of Asian and American Energy, the company’s 2018Q4 net profit2.

1 ‰, with a previous growth rate of 90%, effectively boosting expected performance.

Optimistic about the development of coalbed methane business: With the rapid growth of downstream natural gas demand, a series of natural gas supply and supply tend to tighten, and the upstream price of natural gas has also increased.

As an unconventional natural gas source, coalbed methane will supplement conventional natural gas supply.

With the advancement of Asia-American Energy Panzhuang and the Mabi Blockchain Project, the company’s coalbed methane business has achieved a “volume and price rise”, which has become the core growth point of the company’s future performance.

Profit forecast and investment rating: Taking into account changes in the company’s operating conditions, the profit forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are lowered. It is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to mothers in 2019 and 2020 will be 4 respectively.

400 million, 5.

6 ppm (original value 4).

600 million, 5.

$ 900 million, plus a forecast net profit of 2021 for mothers6.

9.3 billion.

We will not consider the impact of the dividend plan on the share capital for the time being. It is expected that the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 will be 2 respectively.73, 3.

48, 4.

33 yuan, corresponding PE is 15, 12, 9 times.

We are optimistic about the development of the company’s upstream business and maintain a “Buy” rating.

Risk reminder: The sales volume of natural gas is lower than expected, the number of new users’ connection is reduced or the connection cost is reduced, the gas purchase cost exceeds the expected growth, and the gas distribution fee is further down.The risks of change, the cost control effect during the period is less than expected.

Digital China (000034) 2019 First Quarterly Report and Significant Events Comment： Operating Cash Flow Improved, Target Net Profit CAGR Over 20% Over Next Three Years

Digital China (000034) 2019 First Quarterly Report and Significant Events Comment: Operating Cash Flow Improved, Target Net Profit CAGR Over 20% Over Next Three Years
Core Views The company released the 2019 first quarter report and equity incentive plan. The revenue / net profit / OCF of 2019Q1 were 217 respectively.55/1.36/2.6.5 billion, previously +37.8% / + 22.2% / + 273.4%, operating cash flow improved.Equity incentives are extensive, and the target net profit margin will increase by 20% / 45% / 75% in the next three years.Maintain 2019 EPS forecast to 1.01/1.22/1.42 yuan, giving 18 times the 2019 PE, corresponding to a target price of 18.1 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.　　Steady revenue and gross margin decreased slightly, and operating cash flow increased significantly.The company’s 2019Q1 business volume has steadily increased, and its gross profit margin has decreased slightly by zero.97 points.Sales / management / R & D expenses are comparable to 2018Q1, with financial expenses + 30% every six months, and the overall expense ratio (2.24%) -0 per second.74pct, -0.47pct, continued from 2016Q2 (5.20%), to some extent, reflects the scale effect of the company’s business.The decrease in expenses was slightly lower than the decrease in gross profit margin, which resulted in lower profit growth than revenue.In addition, the company’s business has a cap, 2017Q1 / 2018Q1 operating cash flow -1.33 / -1.53 trillion, which will turn positive and grow in Q1 2019. The reason is that the company will strengthen its sales-end assessment and payment recovery in 2018H2. It is expected that the future operating cash flow will be sustainable.　　Equity incentives help long-term development, and the target net profit ratio in the future will increase by 20% / 45% / 75% in 2018.The incentive involved 3287.50,000 shares (accounting for 5.(03%), and the target for performance evaluation in 2019/2020/2021 is to increase the net profit ranking by 20% / 45% / 75% in 2018.Among them, the stock budget is 27.8 million shares (accounting for 4 shares).25%), 22.25 million shares were granted to 245 core technical / business personnel, 5.55 million shares were converted, and the exercise price was 15.55 yuan; budget stock 507.500,000 shares (accounting for 0 shares.78%), awarded 9 executives and 14 core technical / business personnel, replacing 1 million shares.Equity incentives help the company to mobilize the enthusiasm of the company’s executives / core backbones. The target net profit CAGR in the next three years is over 20%.　　The value of channel B is difficult to replace, and cloud services help maintain high growth.The company 杭州桑拿网 cooperates with 80+ mainstream cloud vendors around the world to establish a cloud resource pool that brings together 120+ SaaS / 500 + partners. It has also become the general distributor of Alibaba Cloud and obtained Office 365 resale qualification. It has accumulated more than 600 channel partners.The nation’s largest sales network to B, fully guarantee the development of cloud business.Recently, the pace of domestic and foreign giants turning to the cloud has accelerated, and the trend of domestic enterprises on the cloud has become prominent. We expect that the revenue in 2019Q1 will exceed 300 million, continuing in 2018 (5.800 million) high growth.　　Risk factors: The development of cloud computing is less than expected; the landing of equity incentives is lower than expected.　　Investment suggestion: The company’s main IT distribution business is stable, and cloud services are expected to continue high growth. We are optimistic about the company’s equity incentive implementation and the value of channel B.Maintain 2019/2020/2021 EPS forecast to 1.01/1.22/1.42 yuan, 18 times the target PE for 2019, corresponding to a target price of 18.1 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.