AVIC Sunda (000043) Commentary on Major Issues: Leading State-owned Enterprise Property Management May Start
Core View AVIC Suntec announced that the company intends to purchase investment properties by issuing shares.
Valuation of part of the property management of New AVIC Sunda.
We noticed that if the acquisition of China Merchants Property is completed successfully, the new AVIC Sunda Property Management segment (not the entire company) will have a pro forma revenue of 66 in 2018.
300 million, net profit reached 3.
100 million, net profit margin 4.
The level of corporate net profit margin is relatively high among listed property management companies.
We believe that the estimation of property management companies can give priority to market value / area under management and PS indicators.
Currently, the average PS for comparable property companies is 3.
60, the market value / unit in the tube area is 0.
Considering that the company’s profitability allows after all, we give it below the industry average of 2.
5 times PS, giving industry average of 0.
91 times the market value / million square meters in the tube area, taking the average, we believe that the company’s property management part is reasonable market value of 140.
Valuation of AVIC Sunda’s other businesses.
The company also has real estate development business and investment real estate.
Of course, the company’s platform budget also has net debt, and China Merchants Property also has disadvantages.
The company’s real estate business is mainly reflected in inventory and investment real estate (fair value valuation), with a total of 86 at the end of the first quarter of 2019.
At the same time, the company’s net interest resistance is 26.
In addition, China Merchants Property has a debt scale of 13.
0 million yuan (conservative estimate, replacing the total debt with the total debt of China Merchants Property).
Based on this calculation, the net debt value of the company’s other business segments is approximately 47.
Evaluation of the value of New China Aviation Sunda.
As the transaction price of the acquisition was disclosed in this announcement, we are temporarily unable to obtain the target price of AVIC Sunda and cannot give the company a rating.
We have summarized the value of the property management sector and other business assessments, and concluded that the reasonable value of Xin AVIC Sunda is 187.
90,000 yuan (we redistribute, this is not the corresponding fair market value of the current share capital, it is the pro forma fair market value after the issue, the share capital is not yet determined).
If considering the uncertainty of the event approval, a 20% discount is given, the current probable reasonable value is 150.
Risk reminder: The nature of the company’s acquisition of investment is yet to be approved by the regulatory authority, and there is controversy and uncertainty.
The formation of the leading value of the central enterprises, the company’s medium and long-term value is more worth looking forward to.
Property management companies operate independently of real estate development companies, and set up core competitiveness of property management companies.
Only with a few trivial roles like the cost center of a real estate company, can a property management company formulate a more independent business strategy, carry out more effective incentives, and make great progress in the blue ocean of the service industry of property management.
We believe that the strong combination of China Merchants Property and AVIC is likely to build a central government property management growth leader in the medium and long term, and cultivate a 杭州夜网论坛 comprehensive service system for urban development and industrial upgrading with obvious advantages.
This strong alliance is not the end, but the beginning.In the Hong Kong stock market, large-scale property management companies have rapidly expanded the role of developer vassals after listing, taking over the third party ‘s continued increase in the area under management, and the value-added service income and profit share have continued to rise, creating a cumulative income for investors and also for ownersCustomers and even society as a whole create value for quality services.