Zhao Xiaoguang: How to define the new economy and the screening of new economy companies

Zhao Xiaoguang: How to define the “new economy” and the screening of “new economy” companies
New Fortune Platinum analyst Zhao Xiaoguang: How to define “new economy” and “new economy” companies Source: Tianfeng Securities Research Institute1, how to define the new economy?  Bi Wei: Hello everyone, we are Futu Securities.Today we are fortunate to invite Mr. Zhao Xiaoguang and Mr. Zhao to come and share with us some relevant views on the new economy and new economy companies.We will do some relatively in-depth communication with President Zhao here.Now everyone is talking about the new economy, the new economy.So how do you feel as a professional institution to accurately define this new economy?  Zhao Xiaoguang: I think there should be different interpretations of the new economy from different dimensions.From the perspective of the results, the so-called new economy, I think, should be the improvement of the production efficiency of the entire society and the improvement of the satisfaction of consumer demand.  Judging from the way to solve, or the way the new economy is generated, if it returns to the enterprise, the two major elements of the enterprise: the relationship between production and production.High quality refers to the technical aspect; production relationship refers to the way in which the business organization and the consumer have a relationship.We think that all should return to technology.  Improvement-technology We think that there are two major categories, one is specialized technology: specialized technology is placed on the sofa we sit on, it is a new material, this is specialized technology.The second category we define as instrumental technology.Specifically, it can be understood that these technologies help various traditional industries to redefine their own improvement and production relations, which brings more satisfaction to consumers, and the improvement of the production efficiency and social efficiency of the entire society.  Production relationship-we can understand it as follows: First, the production relationship within the enterprise.We used to look at many outstanding Internet companies in China, and more often we saw changes in its business formats and business models.What I see behind is more about the changes in its organizational form, incentive mechanism, and partner model, so I think this is an internal incentive mechanism issue.  The second is the management model.With big data, artificial intelligence is increasingly replacing people, and after replacing experience, then management with big data and artificial intelligence as the core has become a very important way for enterprises.  The third is the relationship between enterprises and customers, including 2C and 2B customers, how to transfer your products and services to customers, how to transfer customer data to you, and provide you with a better and updated experience.  2. Are there some typical new economy industries and companies?  Bi Wei: Do you have some generalizations about the so-called new economy industries or companies that are typical today?  Zhao Xiaoguang: I think there are three main types of companies today.The first is a breakthrough with technology as the core.For example, Shenzhen Rouyu Technology (using new display technology and new material technology to change many industries).  The second is that many companies like the Internet, like Mobike, Didi, through changes in production relations.They use certain information technology (but there is nothing new in information technology), combining information technology with the organization of the industry.This is more of a change in production relations.  The third is to overlap high quality and production relations.More typical, such as Tesla in the automotive industry, has just changed the way the entire automotive industry uses energy through new battery technologies.  At the same time, we can see that the changes brought about by the entire automotive industry’s supply chain relationship, procurement relationship, and market relationship are a closed-loop format, and a format that is continuously strengthened by positive feedback.So we see that there are some industries and companies, some say music, education, car services, and some finance, they have gradually become closed-loop formats.  3, the “self-driving” of the new economy industry: Bi Biwei: Companies like Baidu are doing self-driving technology.Is it a change in production relations that you speak of?Or change in competitiveness?Or is the production relationship and the economy changing?  Zhao Xiaoguang: From the perspective of driverless technology, we believe that there should be a lot of room for the future.It is mainly based on the scheme of either radar or multi-camera and then artificial intelligence recognition.I can talk about the development of voice technology in the past, because behind the scenes of driverless technology is actually an application of video technology.  In terms of voice technology, around 2010, there was a leading voice company in China called HKUST Xunfei. At that time, HKUST Xunfei was also based on single-machine recognition.At that time, 3G was not yet available, so it could only be identified based on the entire mobile phone. The recognition rate was only about 40%.Later, in the second half of 2010, 3G began to be promoted, and the transmission speed began to accelerate significantly. It began to change from a single machine to cloud computing.  After our voice is received from the mobile phone, it is transmitted to the cloud through the network. There is a huge server in the cloud. Sometimes it is said that 10 million people speak the word “Futu Securities” on this server.The data can be easily identified, and then transmitted over the network to tell you what the word I said is.I remember that it was amazing at the time that in a very short time, its recognition rate increased from more than 40% to 97%, 98%.By now everyone basically feels that HKUST Xunfei is a very good voice company.  For now, I think there are still two steps to go for unmanned driving. The initial step is to change from a single machine to a cloud computing solution.At present, they are all stand-alone GPU solutions. I think after switching to 5G development, it should become a cloud computing solution.Because the computing power of a powerful cloud server is always more than that of a single GPU, this step also depends on technological changes.  Looking back, somehow why are there so many problems with autonomous driving now?Why do you say it is immature?In fact, it is very mature, but in the driving industry, there is a permanent accident.So when a Tesla accident occurs, the whole world will ask Tesla what happened?All kinds of accidents should be prevented.  As an example, suppose I am driving on the side of the road now, and I pass through the wall at the corner. You can’t see it. Suddenly, a truck truck hits you.So I think the second step of driverless is to master your precise position.In addition to our current scan of the surroundings by the radar and observation of the surroundings by the camera, an important technology in the future is to master your precise position.  Some time ago, I also looked at some of these companies, and found that our current navigation can actually only be accurate to 5-10 meters, so it must be unsafe, because 5-10 meters is a very large probability of error.Then if you can use satellite navigation and low-orbit satellite navigation to make it accurate to 5-10 centimeters, we can think of a scene where every car I know where I am now, the precise position, how muchMoving at an hour.  In fact, at this time, you can guess boldly, even if you don’t need the current camera and radar, you can achieve unmanned driving.Because every detail is at your fingertips, knowing your speed and position at all times is the relative position.It can be calculated through our simple physics and mathematics.In this context, it can be seen that technological changes are important to the whole of unmanned driving.  At the same time, we can see that the so-called self-driving is actually artificial intelligence, and the support behind it comes from data.No matter the technical solution we see now or the future technical solution, the core is to be able to get data.Data is technology, data is strength.  At this time, data needs to be obtained through changes in some production relationships.So at this time, that is to say, how do you change the format of this auto industry, and the relationship between cars and consumers allows you to get this data.As unmanned is more typical, it needs both continuous optimization and improvement to prevent the probability of one in 10,000 errors, and it also requires changes in production relations to get data.More and more formats in the future, you will find it in line with positive feedback, that is, the more data, the better the effect, the better the effect, the more people use it, the more data, and the better the effect.  Therefore, if you can meet two points at the same time, I think it will win, that is, the winner takes all.The opponent’s error rate is 0.01%, yours is 0.001% more people use the top, the former is abandoned.  4. “The Headlines Today” of New Economy Corporation: Bi Biwei: Among the current New Economy Corporations, there are also some companies that actually penetrate into every aspect of people’s lives.Of course, I think maybe Tencent, Ali, should be the most penetrated.But we will also see that there are some very new emerging economy companies, and their development momentum is very strong.For example, what do you think is similar to today ‘s headlines?  Zhao Xiaoguang: Today’s headline is not a search company, but I want to start from the search industry to understand the business value of today’s headline.There are actually different technological evolutions in the search industry.The initial search was actually Microsoft.  In Microsoft’s eyes, it thinks that search is a technology-related thing, so when Microsoft started to search, it designed a set of algorithms.For example, if I want to search for “Futu Securities”, then I have to develop a set of algorithms to decide which news or which webpage can be ranked on the first page, and which is ranked on the second page.Later, Google also searched, because Google thinks that business is data, and it thinks that search is a data business.For example, I saw 1 million people searching for “Futu Securities”, and about 200,000 people opened Futu Securities. Our activity today, then I will put this first.I rank according to activity, and I believe that the more people use it and search for it, the more likely it is to more people.  I believe that the future search industry is about to enter an era of precise search.That is to say, the results obtained by different people searching “Futuo Securities” are different. For example, if I am an investment person, then I may search Fortune Securities, the purpose is to open an account with you; If I am a college student, then I would search for “Futuo Securities”, maybe I am looking for a job opportunity; if I am an entrepreneur, then I may want to see if there are opportunities for business cooperation; if IIt is a human resources company, so what I want to see most is whether there are opportunities for human resources cooperation.At this time, it is necessary to directly perform information optimization matching through accurate positioning of the search subject.I think this is the application of accurate data in search.  So from this point of view, what is the value of today ‘s headlines?It acquires your various reading habits, and it grasps your precise data to know what kind of person you are.Therefore, if this precise data is commercialized in the future, it can actually be realized in many fields.Traditional methods such as news reading, I think that the content source will become more of a platform, satisfying positive feedback, that is, the more media are willing to join it, the more readers are willing to watch, then the formationA strong positive feedback, but also has a certain social attributes.  So we define BAT as a black hole. It is a black hole of funds and a black hole of data. BAT can already get enough data. A large number of Internet startups actually have a strong crisis.In this context, if today’s headline can be completed to the present degree, and if it knows that the realization of more and more accurate data in the future will be known, I think it is still more optimistic.  Probably in 2014, I and Zhang Yiming went to the United States to see a lot of technology companies, and they still have intersections.But I have n’t had a chance to ask him. I think that when he was doing today ‘s headline, he discovered the core point of a person. What was his favorite?Perhaps my favorite is “fun”.Through today’s headlines, he has better understood human nature by grasping these precise data.He knows what he likes after the 90s, what he likes after the 00s, and what he likes after the 80s. Whom am I doing this thing for?I think it has something to do with it.  5, live broadcast of the new economy industry, short video 邬 Biwei: Similarly, Yingke as a live broadcast platform.What do you think of Yingke?  Zhao Xiaoguang: Yes, this is a good topic.I was actually very early, probably in 2015, I also helped a live-streaming business start-up. I have provided a lot of help, and in the process I still have a lot of insights about the industry.In fact, Yingke is up in the early days. Yingke is also a big man of various resources. He burns money through the initial capital.But now we can actually define it as declining. The core reason why Yingke disappears now is that it wants to make the video tool a platform.  Bi Wei: In essence, the platform is quite difficult to do, so it ends up giving some vertical segmented video websites or APPs to dismember its traffic.Similarly, if it is so recognized, I suddenly thought of a fast hand that is very hot now, before the vibrato came out.What do you think of President Zhao about this product?  Zhao Xiaoguang: I think if we talk about the transition from fast hand to vibrato, it will easily remind me of the development of smart phones.In fact, you can see that the first wave of saying that Xiaomi started with the reeling economy as its core, this label was put together.However, Xiaomi probably invested around 2014. It was found that the needs of the end user did not want to do reeling. The end user’s basic needs were two: the first was to get rid of the reeling and the second was to install X.  So I have a friend who also worked in the Internet industry for a long time, and he told me that installing X is the most solid demand.Of course, Xiaomi later adjusted its product strategy in a timely manner. I think it is very good now.  This is also the case for the live broadcast industry. In the beginning, the labeling of fast players was “filigree”, and you will see all kinds of very vulgar things.At first you will find it a little fun, but it will not bring you continuous fun, because it is easy for you to have no freshness.As for the way of vibrato, it is gradually developed through continuous and various fun technologies.Recently, I posted some fun videos on ARGO that combined AR technology with real-life scenes and sent them to many people.  Many people find this thing fun.Just because it will continue to create fun things through technological innovation.At this time you will find that, in fact, it is very similar to that year. Some say low-end smartphones and high-end smartphones: Everyone buys the low-end first. After buying the low-end, if you have money, you buy the high-end.In the beginning, playing fast hands was to see the vulgar, to see this three or four lines.But after the vibrato came out, in fact everyone ultimately pursued high-end.  So I think at this time, we can slowly reflect the essence of product positioning.There may not be much difference in the positioning of these two products at the beginning, but there may be an inevitable stage of development, that is, we see that the core explosion of the Internet is actually in third- and fourth-tier cities.So somehow at that time, assuming that vibrato came out first, maybe vibrato was first defined as a filiform, three or four line application.  But at that time, it was because the quick hand came out first, and then the vibrato appeared.The appearance of Douyin has its inevitability, and it has something to do with it actively embracing new technologies and accurate product positioning.But I think there is still room for the fast hand, which means that any product has its value.So when I talk about technology or products, they all have their value. I just say how to accurately locate there is the person who needs you, so this is how important the precise data I just talked about is.  Bi Wei: This short video appeared in the appearance of Kuaishou, which started in the third, fourth, and fifth tier cities, and then appeared because the vibrato was later than Kuaishou.It is equal to, first, it uses a lot of new technologies; second, because the fast hand is labeled, or it is actually a relatively fibrous product, the vibrato after that has taken a relative differenceRoute.That’s the way the whole Douyin now, for example, in the first, second and third tier cities, or in urban youths such as white-collar workers, go forward among urban youth, and go very well.  6. Xiaobi Wei, the “Xiaomi” of the New Economy Company: President Zhao mentioned a company just now, which is Xiaomi.Xiaomi is the first unit of Hong Kong’s new economy.Because in April of this year, Hong Kong made three major changes to this listing system: one is that companies with the same rights and different rights can come to Hong Kong for listing; the second is that some pharmaceutical companies without income can also come to Hong Kong for listing; thirdOf course, this is the case. Large companies that have already been listed overseas can go to Hong Kong for a secondary listing.On the first day of the announcement, Xiaomi offered to list in Hong Kong.What do you think?  Zhao Xiaoguang: In February 2015, I organized a meeting of Mr. Lei in Beijing.At that time, there were about 30 major investment institutions in our country, and then Mr. Lei chatted very excitedly for about 3 hours.I think there are three main points.The first point still revolves around what I said just now. All future technological competitions will focus on accurate data.  Then let’s think about Tencent’s access to our data through WeChat and QQ; Ali’s access to our data through Taobao; Baidu’s access to our data through search; but each of these data is not comprehensive, both areTake it from a certain angle.Only hardware manufacturers can put together all the data of a user to create a complete “you”, which is why the five major US technology giants are desperately doing hardware.  Whether it’s a smart phone, a smart watch, a VR, or a speaker . In fact, the ultimate purpose of Amazon’s speaker is not to allow you to interact easily, or even to get a lot of data through the speaker. This hardware spells outThe data is the most complete.At this time we saw China, at least I did not see that so far, BAT does not have a thing that can complete a complete hardware, so it cannot get complete data.  From this perspective, Xiaomi, Huawei, and OPPO are essentially the companies with the most accurate data and comprehensive accurate data.And Xiaomi knows the Internet best, because Lei always does the Internet.  So I think the first point, Xiaomi is the precise data grasped by the hardware, I think there should be a lot of room for cash in the future.The second point, in fact, I think that Lei always talks about it, just one idea: I want to make a lot of things not so expensive and cheap.In fact, we see that Xiaomi has entered the first-line camp on smartphones. In the end, it is different than Huawei and OPPO who are stronger and weaker.  At this time you find it to do something else.When it was used as a power bank, plug-in board, and purifier, it was made into a product and a high-end brand. At the same time, the price was particularly cheap. You can see that Xiaomi purifier is much cheaper than others.So what do I think is behind this?Behind it is when Xiaomi makes mobile phones, it gathers a wealth of people.  In the electronics industry, people are very interesting. They are all graduates from prestigious universities. The industry’s internal competition is particularly fierce, and large-scale production is particularly needed to respond quickly and iterate continuously.When Xiaomi is making a mobile phone, the combat effectiveness of these people is very strong.Now these people are like cavalry regiments one after another, one by one to capture the non-mobile phone industry, to capture the power bank, to capture the fans, and to capture various industries that are not so fiercely competitive. For this kind of commercialization or understanding of intelligenceFor industries that are not that deep, Xiaomi has made inroads into these fields, just like the Mongolian Empire went to Europe one by one, so I think it is the change in production relations behind it.  I remember last year, there was one of the largest panel companies in the country called BOE. At that time, President Chen of BOE kept telling me. You see, we have to do medical care, Internet of things, and hospitals.I was very puzzled at the time. How could it be possible for the electronics industry to set up a hospital?Later, I specifically interviewed people who used to be panels but were sent to hospitals. In fact, I found that it is the same as Xiaomi. Its unit per capita capacity is that the combat capability of a single person is far more than those of traditional methods.Business people.  I remember Fu Sheng said at the time. When Fu Sheng said that when Lei was digging at him, Lei always said a word to him: Human nature is heaven.Some time ago it wasn’t that how many billionaires Xiaomi would create after it went public, he wanted everyone to have a sense of participation in equity.Then this is a redefinition of production relations, and according to my judgment, it will definitely continue to evolve.  In fact, probably in 2014 and 2015, Xiaomi experienced a trough, and that trough was its inevitable stage, just like the quick stage that the fast hand had had.Because Xiaomi was originally a low-end and high-end mobile phone, no matter how high your performance is, everyone thinks that Xiaomi is a low-end brand. At that time, the strategy of making red rice did affect the high-end brand image.Xiaomi has this process, but I think this process has been scaled up in recent years, and Feng Shui has taken turns.  During the Spring Festival this year, we did about 3,000 questionnaires and found that everyone now regards OPPO as a more low-end brand.I think brands are constantly changing. From the perspective of hardware, it is not as secure as Internet companies.Like Tencent, it is impossible for me to use WeChat, because everyone uses it, and it has strong social attributes.  I don’t need Taobao, that’s impossible, because all the good merchants are on Taobao.But I do n’t need your Xiaomi phone, I can change one at any time, in 无锡夜网 fact, the replacement cost is not that high.So it requires that your organization’s organizational efficiency, management efficiency, and market response should be fast enough.I think Lei Jun is always a very pragmatic person who can constantly change himself. This is very important.  7. The “DJI” of the New Economy Company: Bi Biwei: Just now after listening to your introduction to Xiaomi, I suddenly thought of another one. Actually, it is a hardware company. I don’t think DJI has a very good company.machine.What do you think of this company in DJI?  Zhao Xiaoguang: If Xiaomi is compared with DJI, the simplest is that one is doing 2C and the other is doing 2B. The analysis framework and business model of 2C and 2B are definitely different.If DJI is a 2C drone company, then I think this company may be very dangerous.You have a drone, then there must be enough people in China to use the vertical price to make this drone solution, copy you, and then compete with you, killing you in the end without profit.  However, in the field of 2B, what is more prominent is the understanding of the industry application and the company’s depth and penetration of the industry in the process.Therefore, I think that the first-mover advantage in this field must be particularly obvious, and it will be continuously strengthened, so the space in DJI need not be considered too much from the issue of competition.  Because when we look at enterprises, we look at two points: the first is the space for demand; the second is competition.Some industries may have particularly good demand space, but the competition is fierce, which will eventually be eliminated.So I think this UAV field in DJI can be applied and expanded in all walks of life. The two core points of it are: the first is how the rocket enters various closed loops, the construction of the Internet of Things, and the system of the Internet of Things.I think this is more important.The second is to see that one of the biggest potential roles in the future is unmanned logistics and unmanned distribution.  8. How to evaluate new economy companies?  Bi Wei: To define a new economy company, what are the factors to look at? It is like saying that it is reasonable or unreasonable to define it.  Zhao Xiaoguang: From the perspective of estimation, especially early ones, because I haven’t done the first level, it is difficult to say, but I think there is no difference between the first level and the second level.How much this enterprise should be worth at one stage and how much it is worth at another stage is a dynamic matter.  I think there are mainly several analysis ideas: The first idea is a company. If you are optimistic and assume that it has done all the things it wants to do, it is placed in a traceable way, rather than saying that I am now making a mobile phone.Suddenly I went to make an airplane one day, then there are some traces of how much profit and market value it can make after it is gradually completed.Let me give an example, suppose he finally found that everything was done, and he could achieve a profit of about 2 billion, that is, a market value of 50 billion.  So the second idea is how far this company is doing now, and what percentage of it is done.If you do 10%, it is 5 billion market capitalization.The third is whether the enterprise will do this thing, will it be destroyed by others in the future?So how to prevent it from being destroyed by others?I think that the enterprise symbol does not meet the positive feedback, and the symbol does not meet the logic of getting better and better.  I will compare two companies here, and everyone will easily understand.The first is Didi, and the second is Mobike.Didi is such a good business model that it is too good, so at one stage it was proud and had various problems.Didi is essentially the same business model as Taobao, and its platform is a three-party entity.  What Taobao is, merchants, consumers and platforms.The more consumers, the more merchants willing to join, the more merchants to join, and the more consumers come to buy, it conforms to positive feedback. What is the result of positive feedback is the winner-take-all.Unless Jingdong is in some segmented areas and then has its own logistics system to compete with Taobao.Didi mode is the same. There are more owners who are willing to join, and you will have more users, because it is easier to find a car with Didi, and it is easier to find a car with more Didi users.The easier it is to find users, the more cars join, so it forms a positive feedback again. The result of positive feedback is that the winner takes all, and there is basically no second child.  However, Mobike is not like this, because Mobike’s car has to be clothed by itself, it does not meet the “more users, the more cars”.The result is to rely on your own investment. Once it reaches a stage, it will become its “management structure”, and various problems will occur, so Mobai finally has such an end.In fact, I was totally predictable about a year ago, because its business model does not meet positive feedback.Therefore, Mobai should not have such a high estimate at the time.  Although it said that its business model was minted, a user has 200 yuan, assuming there are 50 million users, not to mention the other 10 billion of this kind of stock funds, normal financial management may have a profit of 500 million.Not to mention commercial monetization, advertising, and all kinds of other monetization.But its shortcoming is that it does not meet the positive feedback, which leads to the possibility that in the end it may have problems in various ways, in various ways, management, or constantly new competitors join.  Because the core problem of Mobike is that it is inseparable from the offline nature of the shop.It is natural for the Internet to go offline.For example, e-commerce, it is naturally connected by logistics, but how to manage the cars off the Mobike line and how are they familiar with each city?You are familiar with Shanghai, how do you get to know Wuhu?How do you get familiar with Wuhan?But what is the mode of Didi, there are a lot of drivers who are familiar with Wuhu and Wuhan. I don’t need to be familiar with it. I only need a lot of people to use my platform.  And there is another reason, because some people say that I use Didi in Shanghai, then I basically use Didi when I go to Wuhan, so I can easily bring it over.This is not the case with Mobike.I ride a bicycle in Shanghai. I don’t necessarily go to Wuhan. After I go, I might find one there.  So from this point of view, there is a big problem in our estimation of Internet companies in the past is that it is easy to linearize-that is, you are good now, because the Internet burns money, especially in the past many O2O, it will burn money,Go up quickly, but it goes up fast, in fact it goes down fast.Because a large number of users are not sticky.There is no long-lasting performance. In some cases, this takeaway is the same for everyone. It doesn’t make much difference to me. Whether I use it or not depends on whether I think it is good or not.  The example I just gave is that, like WeChat, I can’t even tolerate WeChat products. I have to use it because all my social relationships are in it and it has social attributes.Another example is like Microsoft’s office. Even if you can’t bear the office, but some people will use it. If you want to talk about a PPT, you still have to use it. If you use something else, the computer won’t open. Others can’t understand it.However, I think that if there are some business models that are not in line with this type of industry, the estimation of it is actually to be particularly cautious.  Therefore, I think that the 2B industry is relatively easy to estimate. The 2C industry is particularly flexible in its estimation.Therefore, the industry that invests in 2C should be particularly cautious.In fact, we look at a lot of industries. If one day BAT flies and kills them regardless of cost, it may be destroyed overnight.  Bi Wei: The new economy and the old economy are essentially the basic logic of some businesses.  9. What are the trading strategies of listed new economy companies?  Bi Wei: In the Hong Kong market, the year before last year, there were three or four new economy companies, including Meitu, Yixin, Zhongan, and Tencent itself.When these companies went public at the time, they were very popular at the time of the IPO, and the valuation was very high when they went public.After one year, it is almost half of the decline from the high point. For these new economy companies, before and after listing, or at a stage of listing, do you think if a trading strategy is replaced, what kind of trading strategy isA more appropriate approach?  Zhao Xiaoguang: Actually this is about estimating how much it is worth, and how much it is worth at some stage.It is estimated that it is a black box for all of us, and my understanding is that the end result is a chain trend.Whether a company is worth 10 times or 20 times is worth 30 times.If it is in a chain up trend, then I think the market will be willing to give you high estimates.In the downward trend from the previous month, it is possible that the lower the value, the lower the value, and the lower the value.  To track the chain trend of enterprises, for professional institutional investors, we can track it through extensive research and verification after listing.For ordinary investors, I think there is a better place.Because these companies are all product-based companies, these products can be fully experienced.  It’s simple, you go and experience its products.For example, when it comes to Meitu, I look at Meitu: first, is your product getting better and better; second is whether your product is realizing.And if you monetize it, is it possible for me to pay for it.  So you look at Meitu, and now we turn on Meitu’s camera. It doesn’t seem to be realizing anything. It just makes you look better. At this time, it may not have found a way to monetize, so at this time its chain trend will not appearToo much change.If one day you discover, Meitu suddenly has something new.For example, when the two of us are in different places, but they are taken together as a photo, and I am willing to pay for membership.  In fact, I just talked about a lot of estimation problems. The core is who you sell the product to, your target audience, how much you are willing to pay for this product, which is very important.So we see that the industry that was easiest to make money in the past is this kind of entertainment, like games.People go shopping happily, which has a lot of flexibility.  Some people may only be willing to spend 1 yuan to pay, but some people are willing to spend 100 yuan and 500 yuan.So I think at this time, the easiest way for us to track these companies, as Peter Lynch said, is to experience the product, discover changes in the product, and whether these changes can bring it opportunities to make money.  10. How to identify new economy companies?  Bi Wei: More and more new economy companies will go to Hong Kong for listing.In my opinion, Hong Kong may be the most suitable for China’s new economy companies in terms of the listing system, but if you go through so many so-called new economy companies to list in Hong Kong, which one would you use? First, filter out someWhat do you think is a clearly problematic new economy company?  Zhao Xiaoguang: I think it is three categories.One type is easy to be killed by BAT.  Bi Wei: There are no industry barriers.  Zhao Xiaoguang: It is not that there are no industry barriers. It may be said by others that there are industry barriers, but if BAT is to come in, it will not have industry barriers.  In the second category, I think it is easy to be replaced by new technology.I saw a lot of lithium battery material companies myself, and after reading the results, I felt like I was sweating.Like the touch screen technology of the past, this industry must continue to advance in technology, then reduce costs, and then increase the overall energy density and performance, so it must have new technologies.And after this new technology comes out, one is one, the other is two, I’m better than you, and I’ll kill you.  The third category is easily followed by a large number of imitators.I think that if you are like these three types of companies, you must be very careful.If you are a good business model, someone will definitely come in, unless your business model is problematic.  What do I prefer?The first is to form a closed loop in a very precise closed-loop, or very precise user, to form an accurate product positioning.I think it is typical that it will often meet the characteristics of positive feedback. Therefore, the first is that its positioning is more accurate, and the second is that it conforms to positive feedback. Its expansion is endogenous, with its own halo expansion., It does not need to do anything to expand, then I especially like the above two companies.  And some companies depend on you to continue to rely on yourself to lay out resources, to distribute resources, to distribute products to expand, then it will often have problems to a certain extent.  The field of 2C is more and more cautious, and the precise data of the entire core is increasingly being taken away by these big giants.They have their own ecological layout.In each of the most core areas, there are their own companies, so I think we must be cautious.  In the 2B area, it is relatively optimistic.For the positioning of this special group, some children are still optimistic.I happened to take a look at Thumb Plaza in Shanghai recently on the weekend and found that all the shops on the second floor of the square have been closed and all of them have been replaced by children.  I saw a project some time ago. It was in a second-tier city in the northeast. They built a 16,000 square meter mall. This mall is all children.If your child goes in, you have to play a game console; you have to exercise, you have to experience all kinds of ball sports, experience to drive, experience to be a doctor; you have to go to training, various training classes; you have to go shopping, variousClothes; you have to socialize, it has kids socializing and English corner; and there is Party.You send the children in for 2600 yuan a year.  It is now open for more than two months, and is full every weekend, and many tour groups from other places bring groups, so it meets a very precise positioning.Just looking for children, but also realized a completely labelled and scale-effect scene for this business.Like Japan, there is a person who specializes in the elderly. The elderly exercise in it and solve various lonely problems. It is also oriented to this particular person and realizes a full range of services for them.I think this model may kill a way.  Beyond that, if you don’t see a great opportunity, then it is a risk.It is this business model that has no value in itself, no one pays for it, and ultimately makes no money.Or even if some people make money for a while, a lot of people rush in.So we see that under the BAT empire, and now can OK, are to form one after another is accurate or precise positioning of the closed loop: smart investors Source: Snowball